Identification and optimisation of ecological security patterns play an important role in protecting biodiversity and guaranteeing ecosystem services. At present, research on ecological security patterns predominantly focuses on status analysis, and the potential impact of future development on ecosystem services is insufficiently considered. Therefore, an ecological security pattern identification and optimization method coupling ecosystem services, ecological vulnerability and multi-scenario simulation is proposed. Taking the Tarim River Basin as an example, evaluating four ecosystem services, namely, carbon storage, water conservation, soil conservation, and wind and sand control, and identifying ecological source areas in the context of landscape connectivity. Based on the “Sensitivity-Restoration-Pressure” model, ecological vulnerability is evaluated, ecological corridors and key nodes are extracted using circuit theory, and ecological restoration zones are identified by coupled land-use multi-scenario simulation. The results show that: (1) the Tarim River Basin is in a low ecological security zone, with a shortage of water resources and serious desertification in the region. (2) The Tarim River Basin identifies 22 ecological source areas with an area of 69622.24 km2 and 43 ecological corridors with a length of 6579.76 km. The source areas are scattered in the south and densely populated in the north, and there is poor connectivity between the southern and northern source areas. (3) A total of 582 priority protection areas and 237 priority restoration areas were identified. After optimization, the overall connectivity was enhanced, forming an optimized ecological security pattern layout characterized by “two screens, one ring, and multiple zones,” with clear ecological functional zoning. The study provides a basis for the construction and optimization of the ecological security pattern in the Tarim River Basin.