山水林田湖草生态保护修复工程对土地利用碳排放的影响及作用机制研究
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1.华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室;2.湖北大学资源环境学院;3.中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院

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Influence and mechanism of ecological protection and restoration projects for mountains-rivers-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands on land use carbon emissions
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1.Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation,Central China Normal University;2.Faculty of Resources and Environmental Science,Hubei University;3.School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences

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    摘要:

    如期实现“双碳”目标,一个重要方面在于减少土地利用碳排放。而开展生态修复工程是降低土地利用碳排放的重要抓手。为此,中国不断深化生态修复工程部署,实施山水林田湖草生态保护修复工程(以下简称“山水工程”)以应对全球气候变化。山水工程作为一项综合性生态修复工程,其通过改善或恢复现有生态系统的结构和功能及优化区域生态系统的空间布局为碳减排提供了可行思路,而如何评估山水工程对土地利用碳排放的影响进而助力碳达峰碳中和则成为了核心议题。基于2010—2021年中国287个地级市的面板数据,利用渐进双重差分法,研究聚焦于山水工程试点政策实施对土地利用碳排放的影响效应和作用机制。结果发现:(1)通过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、样本数据筛选、排除其他政策干扰以及PSM-DID检验等一系列稳健性检验,山水工程试点政策对试点城市的土地利用碳排放具有显著的抑制作用,在考虑地区与时间特征以及其他影响因素的情况下,其抑制效应为29.9%。(2)在作用机制方面,山水工程试点政策可以通过自然植被恢复、土地结构优化和绿色技术创新三条路径来降低土地利用碳排放。(3)在城市异质性方面,山水工程试点政策有利于资源型城市积极摆脱“资源诅咒”和实现绿色转型发展,从而更加有效降低土地利用碳排放。同样,中东部地区优越的人力、技术、资源条件可以进一步加强山水工程试点政策在降低土地利用碳排放方面的作用。尽管山水工程试点政策推动生态环境改善,但受限于非资源型城市和西部地区经济规模、创新能力和地理区位,碳减排的内生动力存在不足,影响了山水工程试点政策的施行效果。未来应紧扣三大作用机制靶向施策,重视城市类型和区位差异,继续发挥山水工程的碳减排效应。研究结果对完善山水工程顶层设计、推动实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    An important aspect of achieving the "dual carbon" goal as scheduled is to reduce land use carbon emissions. Carrying out ecological restoration projects is an important starting point to reduce land use carbon emissions. To this end, China has continuously deepened the deployment of ecological restoration projects and implemented the ecological protection and restoration project for mountains-rivers-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands (MRFFLG) to cope with global climate change. As a comprehensive ecological restoration project, the MRFFLG project provides feasible ideas for carbon emission reduction by improving or restoring the structure and functions of existing ecosystems and optimizing the spatial layout of regional ecosystems. How to evaluate the impact of MRFFLG projects on land use carbon emissions has become a core issue. Based on panel data from 287 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2021, using the time-varying difference-in-difference method, the study focuses on the impact effect and mechanism of the MRFFLG project pilot policy on land use carbon emissions. The results show that (1) through a series of robustness tests such as parallel trend test, placebo test, sample data screening, exclusion of other policy interference, and PSM-DID test, the MRFFLG project pilot policy has a significant inhibitory effect on land use carbon emissions in pilot cities, reducing emissions by 29.9% when considering regional and temporal characteristics as well as other influencing factors. (2) In terms of mechanism of action, the MRFFLG project pilot policy can reduce land use carbon emissions through three paths: natural vegetation restoration, land structure optimization and green technology innovation. (3) In terms of urban heterogeneity, the MRFFLG project pilot policy is conducive to resource-based cities to actively get rid of the "resource curse" and achieve green transformation and development, thereby more effectively reducing land use carbon emissions. Similarly, the superior human, technological and resource conditions in the central and eastern regions can further strengthen the role of the MRFFLG project pilot policy in reducing land use carbon emissions. Although the MRFFLG project pilot policy promotes the improvement of the ecological environment, limited by the economic scale, innovation capabilities and geographical location of non-resource cities and the western region, the endogenous driving force for carbon emission reduction is insufficient, which affects the implementation effect of the MRFFLG project pilot policy. In the future, targeted policies should be closely followed by the three major mechanisms, urban types and location differences should be paid attention to, and the carbon emission reduction effect of the MRFFLG project should continue to be exerted. The research results are of great significance for improving the top-level design of the MRFFLG project and promoting the realization of the "dual carbon" goal.

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尹琛,聂艳,于婧,徐张洋,许悦,于雷,齐睿.山水林田湖草生态保护修复工程对土地利用碳排放的影响及作用机制研究.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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