一种融合虚实需求的城市群水资源系统韧性动态评估方法及应用
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北京师范大学环境学院

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国家重点研发计划项目课题;国家自然科学基金项目;广东省流域水环境治理与生态修复重点实验室开放基金


A dynamic assessment method and application of urban agglomeration water resource system resilience integrating virtual and physical water demand
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School of Environment,Beijing Normal University

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National Key Research&Development Program Project; National Natural Science Foundation Project;Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Quality Improvement and Ecological Restoration for Watersheds

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    摘要:

    水资源系统韧性提升是应对气候变化等不确定性冲击的有效途径。当前水资源系统韧性研究多关注水资源系统在扰动下维持向经济社会正常供给服务的能力,往往忽略水资源系统中经济社会对扰动的弹性承受能力。考虑经济社会对水资源的需求弹性定义了水资源系统韧性,融合实体水和虚拟水资源分析了面对外部扰动下的城市群水资源系统韧性动态过程,根据经济社会在扰动下的需水满足状态划分为抵抗(Resistance)-适应(Adaptation)-恢复(Recovery)的韧性阶段,构建了城市群水资源系统RAR韧性评估的理论框架,实现了从供给和需求侧对水资源系统韧性的动态评估。选择珠三角城市群作为典型案例,对提出的理论方法进行应用。结果表明近十年珠三角城市群大部分城市的水资源系统韧性逐渐提高,虽然理想需水未能满足,但是仍然处于弹性可调控的区间范围。城市水资源禀赋和发展阶段不同,实体水和虚拟水对水资源系统韧性发挥的作用也存在差异。这种融合了实体和虚拟水资源需求的城市群水资源系统韧性理论与方法有助于针对不同城市提出水资源系统韧性提升的路径建议。

    Abstract:

    Enhancing the resilience of water resource systems is an effective strategy for addressing the uncertainties posed by climate change and other shocks. Current research on water resource system resilience primarily focused on the system's ability to maintain regular service provision to socio-economic sectors during disturbances, often overlooking the capacity of these sectors to adapt to such disruptions. This paper defined water resource system resilience by considering the demand elasticity of socio-economic sectors for water resources and incorporated both physical and virtual water to analyze the dynamic resilience of urban agglomeration water systems under external disturbances. Based on the fulfillment of water demand under disturbances, resilience was categorized into three stages: Resistance, Adaptation, and Recovery, thereby establishing a theoretical RAR resilience assessment framework for urban agglomeration water resource systems. This framework allowed for dynamic resilience assessments from both the supply and demand perspectives. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration was used as a typical case study to apply the proposed approach. The results indicated that, over the past decade, the resilience of the water resource system in most cities within the Pearl River Delta gradually improved. Although ideal water demand was not fully met, it remained within a manageable elasticity range. Due to differences in urban water resource endowments and development stages, the contributions of physical and virtual water to the resilience of the water resource system varied. This integrated approach, combining both physical and virtual water demand, offered valuable insights to enhance resilience of water resource system in urban agglomeration and could help propose tailored resilience enhancement strategies for different cities.

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袁江杰,徐琳瑜,张晓蓉,张星.一种融合虚实需求的城市群水资源系统韧性动态评估方法及应用.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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