1990-2022年祁连山国家公园碳储量时空变化及其驱动因素
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甘肃省教育厅高校科研创新平台重大培育项目(2024CXPT-07);草业生态系统教育部重点实验室"揭榜挂帅"项目(KLGE-2024-06);甘肃省教育厅优秀研究生"创新之星"项目(2025CXZX-851);国家林业和草原局草地啮齿动物危害防控创新团队


Spatiotemporal variation of carbon storage and its driving factors in Qilian Mountain National Park from 1990 to 2022
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    摘要:

    全球气候变暖和冰雪融化等现象日益加剧,加速了生态系统的退化,特别是在"双碳"战略背景下,明确碳储量对气候变化和人类活动的响应变得尤为重要。目前在碳储量方面的研究未充分考虑碳储量在不同时间段内逐年碳储量的动态变化,无法有效捕捉碳储量的细节变化特征,此外,影响因素维度较为单一,从而难以明确碳储量变化的关键因素。基于1990-2022年逐年土地利用/覆被数据,应用InVEST模型计算了逐年碳储量,并结合Sen+MK趋势分析和Spearman相关性分析,探讨了祁连山国家公园碳储量的变化趋势及其驱动因素。结果表明:(1)过去33年间该地区碳储量空间差异明显,平均碳储量为112.12 t,碳储总量呈轻微上升趋势,显著变化的区域面积仅占1.11%;(2)在不同土地利用/覆被类型中,森林具有最强的碳储能力,而草原由于其广泛的分布,碳储总量最大;(3)地形(不包括坡向因素)、土壤、气候及土壤因子均与碳储量显著相关。尤其是气温(r=0.489)、蒸散发量(r=0.406)和人类足迹(r=0.460)对碳储量的正向驱动作用显著高于降水量、粘土和细粉砂等因子,而海拔对碳储量呈负向驱动(r=-0.514)。研究揭示了该区域碳储量的时空变化规律,并深入探讨了影响碳储量的关键因素,为未来生态保护与碳汇管理提供了重要的科学依据。

    Abstract:

    In recent years, the continuous increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, particularly the rising emissions of carbon dioxide, has exacerbated global climate warming, accelerated ice and snow melting, and intensified ecosystem degradation. Carbon storage, as a critical component of ecosystem regulatory functions, plays a vital role in mitigating climate issues such as the greenhouse effect by absorbing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Since the 1860s, the frequency of human activities has significantly increased, accelerating changes in land use patterns and contributing to a series of environmental challenges, including global climate change. To address these issues, various countries and regions have formulated carbon neutrality goals and strengthened land management and planning. Particularly under the "dual-carbon" strategy, understanding the response of carbon storage to climate change and human activities has become increasingly important. Current research on carbon storage has not adequately addressed the dynamic changes in carbon storage on an annual basis across different time periods, thus failing to capture the detailed changes in carbon storage. Additionally, the factors influencing carbon storage are often considered from a limited perspective, making it challenging to identify the key drivers of changes in carbon storage. This study, utilizing annual land use/land cover data from 1990 to 2022, employs the InVEST model to calculate yearly carbon storage, and combines Sen+MK trend analysis and Spearman correlation analysis to explore the trend of carbon storage changes and their driving factors in the Qilian Mountain National Park. The findings indicate that: 1) Over the past 33 years, there has been significant spatial variation in carbon storage in the region, with an average carbon storage of 112.12 t. The total carbon storage has shown a slight upward trend, with areas of significant change accounting for only 1.11% of the total area. 2) Among different land use/land cover types, forests exhibit the highest carbon storage capacity, while grasslands, due to their extensive distribution, account for the largest total carbon storage. 3) Topography (excluding aspect), soil, climate, and soil factors are all significantly correlated with carbon storage. Specifically, temperature (r=0.489), evapotranspiration (r=0.406), and human footprint (r=0.460) have a significantly stronger positive driving effect on carbon storage than precipitation, clay, and fine silt, while altitude negatively drives carbon storage (r=-0.514). This study reveals the spatiotemporal variation of carbon storage in the region and provides an in-depth analysis of the key factors influencing carbon storage, offering important scientific support for future ecological protection and carbon sink management.

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刘雪霞,郝媛媛,孟哲,何生申,安春春,陈松清,楚彬,花立民.1990-2022年祁连山国家公园碳储量时空变化及其驱动因素.生态学报,2025,45(11):5263~5276

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