森林土壤储碳与增汇的不确定性分析
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国家自然科学基金重点项目(31930078);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD2200400)


Uncertainty analysis of soil carbon storage and sink in forests
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31930078)

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    摘要:

    森林具有类型多样、结构复杂以及随环境变化等特征,1 m深森林土壤储存的碳约占全球森林生态系统总碳储量的45%,约占全球土壤碳库的52%。目前对森林土壤固碳潜力和关键过程机制的认识还十分有限。因此,森林土壤储碳与增汇的估算仍存在很大不确定性。研究梳理了森林土壤有机碳(SOC)储量、密度、含量、增量、固定和碳汇等术语定义;综述了SOC稳定性的机制,包括化学结构稳定性、团聚体物理保护、金属氧化物和粘土矿物吸附,生物与环境主导有机碳稳定固持,以及最新研究相继提出的森林SOC组分多样性及功能复杂性维持碳稳定的学术观点。研究还分析了森林SOC储量和增量不同测定方法的主要原理、优点和不足。根据已有文献数据分析,全球森林1 m 深SOC储量变化范围为383-787 Pg C(Pg=1015g),年变化范围为每年降低349 Tg C(Tg=1012g)到每年增加498 Tg C。中国森林1 m深 SOC储量评估范围为16.0-34.2 Pg C,年变化范围为每年降低64.5 Tg C到增加217.3 Tg C。说明目前对森林SOC储量和增量的估算还存在很大不确定性。最新研究表明全球森林碳容量和固碳潜力巨大,但不同研究对SOC是否存在上限仍具不同观点,气候变化对森林SOC储量及其持续固碳潜力的影响也存在较大的不确定性。未来建议通过学科交叉深入探索森林群落结构与土壤固碳过程之间的联系,从碳组分多样性和功能复杂性的新视角理解森林SOC的形成与稳定机制;将SOC监测纳入国家森林资源清查体系、建立国家尺度的SOC长期监测网络、设立我国森林SOC增汇大科学计划;提出保持SOC稳定固持的天然林保护修复及经营提升途径;建立培育高固碳树种,优化林分结构,合理采伐以及轮伐期延长等人工林土壤固碳增汇经营技术体系。

    Abstract:

    Forests,characterized by diverse types,complex structures,and high sensitivity to environmental changes,account for approximately 45% of the carbon stock in global forest ecosystems and 52% of the global soil carbon pool in the 0-100 cm layer. However,the carbon sequestration potential and key mechanistic processes of forest soils remain limited. Consequently,substantial uncertainties persist in estimating forest soil carbon storage and net carbon sink. In this study,we compiled definitions of terms related to forest soil organic carbon (SOC),including stock,density,concentration,accrual,sequestration,and carbon sink; reviewed the mechanisms of SOC stability,including chemical structure stability,physical protection by aggregates,adsorption by metal oxides and clay minerals,and the dominant role of biological and environmental factors in shaping SOC stabilization. Recent studies suggested that the diversity of SOC components and the complexity of their functions in forests played a critical role in maintaining carbon stability. We conducted a comparative analysis of the main principles,advantages,and limitations of various methods for measuring forest SOC stocks and accrual; and literature review to estimate that the global patter of SOC stocks in the 0-100 cm layer in forest soils,ranging from 383 to 787 Pg C (Pg=1015g). Current studies showed significant discrepancies in the annual variation of global forest SOC stocks,ranging from a decrease of 349 Tg C (Tg=1012g) to an increase of 498 Tg C per year in the 0-100 cm layer. In China,the estimated range of SOC stocks in the 0-100 cm layer in forests ranged from 16.0 to 34.2 Pg C,and the estimated annual variation in SOC stocks in forests ranged from a decrease of 61.5 Tg C to an increase of 217.3 Tg C in the 0-100 cm layer. The above-estimated results remain a great uncertainty in forest SOC stocks and accrual. Recent studies suggested that global forest carbon capacity and sequestration potential were substantial. However,varying perspectives exist regarding whether there was an upper limit to SOC. The impacts of climate change on forest SOC stocks and long-term sequestration potential also remain uncertain. Future studies need to focus on the connections between forest community structure and soil carbon sequestration processes by using interdisciplinary approaches,aiming to understand the mechanisms underlying forest soil carbon stability from a new perspective of the diversity of carbon components and the complexity of their functions. A national-scale long-term SOC monitoring network by incorporating soil C monitoring into the national forest resource inventory system and a major scientific program for enhancing C sequestration in forest soils should be initiated. Also,it is necessary to develop a technical system of forest management to enhance soil sequestration and maintain soil C stability,including natural forest protection,restoration,and management strategies and plantations silviculture regime,including cultivating high-carbon tree species,optimizing stand structure,implementing reasonable harvesting practices,and extending rotation periods.

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王晖,刘世荣,周正虎,陈亮,王健.森林土壤储碳与增汇的不确定性分析.生态学报,2025,45(8):3626~3644

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