青藏高原东部河源区植被时空格局的不确定性:LAI产品对比及启示
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1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室;2.中国科学院大学

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国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002805);国家自然科学基金项目(42271029)


Uncertainty in the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation in the river source region of the eastern Tibetan Plateau: Implications from multiple LAI products comparisons
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1.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences;2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    青藏高原是我国的生态安全屏障。气候变化和人类活动背景下,青藏高原植被变化显著,整体呈“变绿”之势。然而,前人关于全球尺度的植被变化研究发现,不同卫星遥感产品得到的叶面积指数(LAI)之大小和变化趋势皆存在较大差异。因此,揭示青藏高原植被时空变化格局的不确定性,不仅是科学评估寒区生态系统如何响应气候变化的前提,还可为未来减小对地卫星观测误差提供参考。据此,本研究聚焦青藏高原植被条件较好的东部河源区,揭示三种长时间序列LAI数据产品(GIMMS、GLASS和GLOBMAP)在表征LAI多年均值和变化趋势的异同。就多年均值而言,研究区内三种LAI产品的相对不确定性达到26.19%;在生长季三个阶段中,生长季初期的相对不确定性最大,为32.7%。就1982—2018年间的变化而言,GLOBMAP和GLASS相对增大了25.05%和20.24%,而GIMMS 的相对变化仅为3.85%,亦即GLOBMAP和GLASS的“绿化”现象最为明显。对1982—2018年间整个生长季、生长季初期和中期的LAI而言,三种产品变化方向不完全一致的面积占研究区总面积的60%,这一面积比例在生长季末期甚至超过了75%。在各下垫面类型中,草原的LAI相对不确定性最大,平均为37.7%;而森林LAI变化方向不完全一致的比例最大,超过了森林总面积的60%。在缺少大面积实测LAI地面“真值”的情况下,虽然本文并未揭示具体何种LAI产品精度最高,但结果对学术界有重要启示:在研究植被变化对生态、水文和气候之影响时,需谨慎使用某单独的LAI产品,否则可能得到相反的科学认知。诚然,在未来高分辨率卫星观测和人工智能等先进手段的辅助下,LAI产品的不确定性有望进一步减小,这需要遥感、测绘、生态、地理等多学科的共同努力。

    Abstract:

    The Tibetan Plateau serves as an ecological security barrier for China. Under the influence of climate change and human activities, the vegetation in the Tibetan Plateau has varied substantially, trending overall toward “greening”. However, previous studies on global-scale vegetation change have reported substantial uncertainties in both the magnitude and trend of current Leaf Area Index (LAI) derived from different satellite remote sensing products. Therefore, addressing the uncertainty in spatial and temporal vegetation patterns in the Tibetan Plateau is not only crucial for scientifically assessing how alpine ecosystems respond to climate change, but also provides a reference for reducing uncertainties in future Earth Observation satellites. Therefore, by focusing on the river source region of the eastern Tibetan Plateau with relatively favorable vegetation conditions, this study aims to elucidate the differences in the magnitude and the trend of LAI among three long-term LAI data products (GIMMS, GLASS, and GLOBMAP) over the past few decades. In terms of multi-year averages, the relative uncertainty among the three LAI products in the study region reached 26.19%. Among the three periods of the growing season, the early-growing season exhibited the highest relative uncertainty at 32.7%. From 1982 to 2018, GLOBMAP and GLASS showed that LAI has increased by 25.05% and 20.24%, respectively, whereas GIMMS indicated a somewhat marginal change of only 3.85% in the growing season LAI, suggesting that the “greening” phenomenon is most prominent in the former two products. Three products showed different trend directions for LAI during the entire growing season, early-growing season, and mid-growing season periods in about 60% of the study area, with this percentage exceeding 75% during the late-growing season. Among the land cover types, the steppe had the largest relative uncertainty of 37.7%, while the forest had the largest proportion of inconsistency in the direction of trends in LAI, accounting for over 60% of forested area. In the absence of large-scale ground-truth LAI measurements, while the LAI product that has the highest accuracy remains unknown, the implication from the present study is the caution should be exercised in relying on any single LAI product when investigating the effects of vegetation change on ecosystems, hydrology, and climate, as this may lead to contrasting conclusions. Admittedly, with future advancements in high-resolution satellite observations and artificial intelligence models, the uncertainty in LAI products is expected to further decrease. Achieving this will require a community effort across multiple disciplines, including remote sensing, surveying, ecology, and geography.

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罗洢雯,马 宁,张永强.青藏高原东部河源区植被时空格局的不确定性:LAI产品对比及启示.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/10.5846/stxb202410312658

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