1982—2018年中国北方耕地植被绿度时空变化及其驱动因素
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国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271399)


Spatiotemporal characteristics and drivers of cropland vegetation greenness in northern China from 1982 to 2018
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    摘要:

    随着中国粮食生产重心逐步北移,中国北方的粮食供给能力愈发重要。研究北方耕地植被变化趋势及其驱动机制,对于揭示农业生态系统演变规律、优化区域农业发展策略和保障国家粮食安全等具有重要的意义。将北方地区分为东北、华北和西北三个子区域,基于1982—2018年GIMMS LAI3g遥感数据产品,结合土地利用产品、数字高程模型(DEM)和气候因子等数据,采用Theil-Sen median趋势分析和Mann-Kendall检验方法,系统分析了北方耕地植被叶面积指数(LAI)的时空变化特征,同时,利用残差分析法探究其变化的驱动因素,并基于地理探测器模型定量评估各驱动因子的贡献程度。研究结果表明:(1)1982—2018年中国北方耕地植被LAI整体呈显著上升趋势,年均增长率达0.0064。这一过程呈现明显的阶段性特征:1982—2000年为缓慢增长阶段,华北地区年均增速最高(0.0121),2000—2018年进入了快速增长阶段,西北地区年均增速升至0.0180,超越华北地区成为增速最快的区域;(2)北方耕地植被LAI均值在空间分布上呈现东高西低的格局,较高值区(LAI>1.5)主要集中分布在海拔0—500m以及坡度0—2°的地形平坦区域。1982—2018年显著绿化区域约占研究区总面积的57.6%,且体现出明显的时空分异特征:1982—2000年以无显著变化趋势为主,仅华北地区呈局部改善趋势,2000—2018年显著绿化的面积大幅提升,尤以西北地区的绿化增长最为显著;(3)驱动机制分析显示,人类活动是北方耕地植被LAI变化的主导因素,在东北地区表现尤为明显。进一步定量分析表明,农业机械动力、有效灌溉面积和农业播种面积构成其变化的关键驱动要素,各区域驱动机制存在明显差异:东北和华北地区的农业生产主要受益于农业机械化水平提升(解释力q > 0.6),而西北地区则主要依赖于灌溉(q > 0.9)。研究结果可为中国北方农业管理提供科学依据,有效服务于宏观尺度耕地的可持续发展与生态恢复。

    Abstract:

    With the gradual northward shift of China's grain production center, the role of northern China has become increasingly crucial in food production. Understanding the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of cropland vegetation changes in this region is of significant importance for revealing the evolution of agricultural ecosystems, optimizing regional agricultural development strategies and ensuring national food security. In this study, northern China was divided into three subregions: Northeast, North China and Northwest. Based on the combination of GIMMS LAI3g remote sensing products, land use products, digital elevation model (DEM), climatic factors and other datasets from 1982 to 2018, this study employed the Theil-Sen median trend analysis and Mann-Kendall test to assess the spatiotemporal variations of cropland vegetation leaf area index (LAI). Furthermore, residual analysis and geographical detector model were applied to identify and quantify the relative contributions of key driving factors. The results showed that: (1) Cropland vegetation LAI in northern China exhibited a significant increasing trend from 1982 to 2018, with an average annual growth rate of 0.0064. The trend demonstrated distinct phase characteristics: the initial phase (1982—2000) was characterized by relatively slow growth, with North China showing the highest annual increase rate (0.0121), while the subsequent phase (2000—2018) witnessed accelerated development, particularly in the Northwest region, where the annual growth rate reached 0.0180, surpassing North China to become the fastest-growing area; (2) The spatial distribution of the average cropland vegetation LAI displayed a general east-high and west-low pattern, with higher values (LAI>1.5) primarily concentrated in areas with low elevations (0—500 m) and gentle slopes (0—2°). Throughout the study period, significant greening areas accounted for 57.6% of the total study region, exhibiting distinct spatiotemporal differentiation patterns. The earlier period (1982—2000) was characterized by minimal significant changes, with only localized improvements in North China, while the latter period (2000—2018) witnessed substantial expansion of significantly greened areas, particularly prominent in the Northwest region. (3) The driving mechanism analysis revealed that human activities were the dominant factors influencing the greening or browning of cropland vegetation in northern China, especially in the Northeast region, where human interventions were the most pronounced. Further analyses exhibited that agricultural machinery power, effective irrigated area, and agricultural sown area were the main driving factors influencing the cropland vegetation LAI changes in northern China. However, the relative importance of these factors exhibited distinct regional variations. Agricultural production in Northeast and North China relied more on agricultural mechanization power (q > 0.6), while irrigation was a primary factor in Northwest China (q > 0.9). These findings provide scientific basis for agricultural management in northern China, which can support sustainable development and ecological restoration of cropland at a large scale.

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朱娜娜,徐保东,王聪,薛秉愉,王梦楠,胡琼.1982—2018年中国北方耕地植被绿度时空变化及其驱动因素.生态学报,2025,45(18):8939~8954

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