评估东北水稻种植分布迁移适应气候变化的增产效果
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中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院

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国家重点研发计划项目课题(2023YFF0805900-04)


Evaluating the yield-increasing effect of the migration of rice cultivation distribution in the northeast in adapting to climate change
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School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China

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National Key R&D Program of China(2023YFF0805900-04)

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    摘要:

    理解粮食生产适应气候变化的机制,并评估其效果是提高农业适应能力的关键。作物迁移是一种重要的农业适应气候变化策略,但是已有研究尚未对其适应效果开展充分评估。以东北地区为例,采用随机森林模型研究了1985—2015年该区域水稻种植分布迁移的驱动因素,并量化了水稻种植分布迁移适应气候变化的增产效果。研究发现:首先,1985—2015年气候变化促使东北地区水稻种植的重心向东北方向迁移了约106km。其中,积温增加是影响东北地区水稻布局变迁最关键的气候因素,使得水稻种植重心向东北方向的迁移了约83km,并推动了该地区水稻种植面积扩张了68万hm2,这一增量占该时期内扩张总面积的37%;然而,降水量的变化对东北水稻种植分布迁移的影响较小。其次,东北水稻种植区域北移有效缓解了水稻生长期的高温胁迫,对提升东北水稻单产产生了积极影响。进一步量化分析发现,若不考虑水稻种植分布的迁移,气候变化仅能带来273万t的水稻产量增益。然而,同时考虑气候变化对水稻单产以及种植分布的影响时,其对于东北水稻总产量的提升效果则显得尤为显著,增产总量达到了约843万t,占据了实际增产总量的31%。这一发现凸显了作物种植分布迁移在适应气候变化对粮食生产风险中的关键作用。为了充分发挥水稻种植分布迁移的积极效应,应着重于选育具有更强耐寒性的水稻品种,提升农业机械化水平,构建全面且有效的农业支持政策体系与灌溉基础设施,并同步提升产量与环境的协同效应。本研究成果为深化理解农业适应气候变化的机制、优化中国水稻生产布局以及提升农业的气候适应能力提供了坚实的科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Understanding agricultural adaptive mechanisms to climate change and evaluating adaptation efficacy are critical for improving agricultural climate resilience. Crop migration is an important agricultural adaptation strategy, yet existing research has not adequately assessed its adaptive effectiveness. Using Northeast China as a case study, we apply the Random Forest algorithm to analyze drivers behind the migration of rice cultivation distribution in this region from 1985 to 2015, and quantify its adaptation benefits. The results show that: Firstly, climate change from 1985 to 2015 prompted a northeastward shift of ~106 km in rice cultivation's centroid within Northeast China. Among them, the increase in accumulated temperature is the most critical climatic factor influencing the changes in rice cultivation distribution in the Northeast region. It has contributed to the migration of the center of gravity of rice cultivation towards the northeast by approximately 83 kilometers and promoted an expansion of rice cultivation area in the region by 680,000 hectares, accounting for 37% of the total expansion during this period. However, changes in precipitation have no significant effect on the shift of the rice cultivation distribution. Secondly, the northward shift of rice cultivation areas in the Northeast has effectively alleviated high temperature stress during the rice growing period, positively influencing rice yield enhancement across the region. Further quantitative analysis reveals that if the migration of rice cultivation distribution is ignored, climate change alone would increase rice production by 2.73 million tons. However, when considering both the increase in yield and changes in cultivation distribution comprehensively, the effect of climate change on enhancing the total rice production in the Northeast becomes more prominent, with an increase of approximately 8.43 million tons, accounting for 31% of the total actual increase in production. This finding highlights the crucial role of the migration of crop cultivation distribution in adapting to the risks posed by climate change on food production. To fully leverage the positive effects of the migration of rice cultivation distribution, emphasis should be placed on selecting and breeding rice varieties with stronger cold tolerance, improving the level of agricultural mechanization, developing integrated agricultural policy frameworks and irrigation infrastructure, and simultaneously enhancing the synergistic effect between yield and the environment. The research findings of this study provide a solid scientific basis for deepening the understanding of mechanisms for agriculture to adapt to climate change, optimizing the layout of rice production in China, and enhancing agricultural adaptability to climate change.

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苏询,梁钰茹,华而实,陈敏鹏.评估东北水稻种植分布迁移适应气候变化的增产效果.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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