As a major province of inbound tourism in China, Yunnan Province has a close relationship between inbound tourism and tourism carbon emissions, and in-depth discussion of the interaction relationship and influencing mechanism between the two is the lifeblood of the high-quality development of tourism in Yunnan Province. Based on this, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and differences of the coupling and coordinated development level of inbound tourism and tourism carbon emissions in Yunnan Province by using the coupling coordination degree model and the Dagum Gini coefficient method, and then integrates the XGBoost regression model and random forest regression model to identify the leading influencing factors and factors of the coupling and coordinated development of inbound tourism and tourism carbon emissions in Yunnan Province, and uses the Tobit model, RE model, FE model and OLS model to analyze the bias effect of the relevant leading influencing factors. The results show that: (1) The level of coupling and coordinated development in Yunnan Province shows a fluctuating and upward evolution trend, but the development differences between regions are large, and the spatial evolution pattern of low (Nujiang→), high (Dali), low (Chuxiong), →→ high (Kunming) → low (Qujing) from west to east. (2) The development factors, economic factors, population factors, and governance factors of tourism industry are the leading influencing factors for the coupling and coordinated development of inbound tourism and tourism carbon emissions in Yunnan Province. (3) Among them, the financial support for tourism has a significant negative impact on the level of coupling and coordinated development of inbound tourism and tourism carbon emissions, and the scale of tourism development, tourism infrastructure, economic development level, and industrial structure optimization have a significant positive impact, while the negative effect of population agglomeration level is not significant. Therefore, it is necessary to actively guide the development of low-carbon tourism, optimize the structure of the tourism industry, promote the large-scale operation and coordinated development of the regional tourism industry, optimize the regional tourism industry chain, and realize the benign interaction between inbound tourism and tourism carbon emissions.