基于PSR模型的长江流域安徽段乡村韧性时空演变及影响因素
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1.安徽建筑大学建筑与规划学院;2.赣南医科大学第一临床医学院

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2022年度安徽省教育厅高校人文社科研究项目重点项目(2022AH050226);安徽省高校自然科学基金重点项目 (2022AH050244)


Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of rural resilience in the Anhui section of the Yangtze River Basin based on the PSR model
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School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Anhui Jianzhu University

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    摘要:

    长江流域(安徽段)作为长江经济带的重要组成部分,其乡村地区的发展面临着诸多挑战:频发的自然灾害、生态环境恶化、经济社会转型、人口流失、经济社会衰败等问题,乡村振兴和乡村可持续发展成为了亟需解决的难题。基于“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型,探讨了长江流域(安徽段)乡村韧性的科学内涵及其运作机制。乡村韧性被定义为乡村系统在面对外部干扰时的适应、恢复和转型能力。通过构建乡村韧性评价指标体系,利用熵值法、空间自相关模型、地理探测器等方法探究长江流域安徽段2011—2020年间31个县级单位的乡村韧性时空演变特征和影响因素,结果显示乡村韧性总体呈上升趋势,且与经济实力、产业结构及市场规模等因素呈正相关;空间上呈现“东北高西南低”的“梯度状”分布特征;根据全局自相关测度结果,长江流域安徽段地区乡村韧性发展水平呈现正相关且有一定的空间集聚性,乡村韧性高值区主要聚集在合肥、马鞍山市周边县区,低值区主要分布在经济基础相对较差的大别山区,2011-2020年,乡村韧性水平的空间集聚特征由弱变强,表明此时区域乡村韧性状况的“极化”现象愈发明显;局部自相关测度结果显示,乡村韧性的“高-高”集聚区在空间主要分布在合肥市周边,并逐步扩张,“低-低”集聚区主要分布在研究区西侧的大别山片区的县域,乡村韧性呈现“块状”分布且较为规则,趋势面分析结果表明,乡村韧性水平在空间趋势上呈现出“两边低,中间高”的布局态势。研究强调了经济基础与基础设施建设的交互作用对乡村韧性的提升具有重要影响,对于全面理解长江流域安徽段乡村韧性演化机制具有重要意义,为长江流域安徽段乡村面临的自然灾害、生态环境恶化等问题如何解决提供理论支持和政策建议。未来应进一步探讨城乡韧性之间的相互作用机制,以实现资源的高效配置和区域的协调发展。

    Abstract:

    As an important part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the development of rural areas in the Yangtze River Basin (Anhui Section) is facing many challenges: frequent natural disasters, deterioration of the ecological environment, economic and social transformation, population loss, economic and social decay, etc., and rural revitalization and sustainable rural development have become problems that need to be solved urgently. Based on the "Pressure-State-Response" (PSR) model, the scientific connotation and operating mechanism of rural resilience in the Yangtze River Basin (Anhui Section) were discussed. Rural resilience is defined as the ability of rural systems to adapt, recover and transform in the face of external disruptions. By constructing an evaluation index system for rural resilience, using the entropy method, spatial autocorrelation model, geographic detector and other methods to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of rural resilience of 31 county-level units in the Anhui section of the Yangtze River Basin from 2011 to 2020, the results show that rural resilience generally shows an upward trend, and is positively correlated with factors such as economic strength, industrial structure and market size. Spatially, it presents a "gradient" distribution characteristics of "high in the northeast and low in the southwest". From 2011 to 2020, the spatial agglomeration characteristics of rural resilience level changed from weak to strong, indicating that the "polarization" phenomenon of rural resilience in the region became more and more obvious. The results of local autocorrelation measurement show that the "high-high" agglomeration area of rural resilience is mainly distributed around Hefei City and gradually expands, and the "low-low" agglomeration area is mainly distributed in the county area of Dabie Mountain area on the west side of the study area, and the rural resilience is distributed in a "block-like" manner and is relatively regular. This study emphasizes that the interaction between economic foundation and infrastructure construction has an important impact on the improvement of rural resilience, which is of great significance for a comprehensive understanding of the evolution mechanism of rural resilience in the Anhui section of the Yangtze River Basin, and provides theoretical support and policy suggestions for how to solve the problems faced by natural disasters and ecological environment deterioration in the Anhui section of the Yangtze River Basin. In the future, the interaction mechanism between urban and rural resilience should be further explored to achieve efficient allocation of resources and coordinated regional development.

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张少杰,李兰兰,孙宏鑫,肖铁桥,董冬.基于PSR模型的长江流域安徽段乡村韧性时空演变及影响因素.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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