成渝城市群生态韧性与城市化的耦合效应及未来情景模拟
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1.安徽建筑大学建筑与规划学院;2.合肥市规划设计研究院

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安徽省社科规划重点项目(AHSKD2023D028)


Coupling Effect and Future Scenario Simulation of Ecological Resilience and Urbanization in Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration
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School of Architecture and Planning, Anhui Jianzhu University

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Key Projects of Anhui Social Science Planning(AHSKD2023D028)

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    摘要:

    城市化快速发展对城市生态系统的稳定性产生了较大的负面影响,探究生态韧性的时空演变特征及其与城市化的交互效应,对实现城市可持续发展具有重要意义。以成渝城市群为例,从“抵抗力-适应力-恢复力”三个维度构建生态韧性评价框架,采用耦合协调模型测度城市化与生态韧性的交互效应,继而模拟2035年自然发展和耕地保护两种情景下的生态韧性空间分布。研究表明:(1)2010-2020年成渝城市群的生态韧性水平波动式下降,空间分布呈现中心-分散态势,高、低生态韧性水平区域呈现集聚特征。城市间生态韧性水平差异显著,且差距不断扩大。(2)不同类型城市化与生态韧性的交互效应差异显著,其中人口城市化、空间城市化和社会城市化与生态韧性存在权衡效应,经济城市化与生态韧性存在协同效应。(3)2035年,基于自然发展情景下土地利用扩张的城市群生态韧性水平高于基于耕地保护情景下土地利用扩张的城市群生态韧性水平,主要源于自然发展情景下的抵抗力水平明显高于耕地保护情景。

    Abstract:

    The rapid urbanization has significantly impacted the stability of urban ecosystems. Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of ecological resilience and its interaction with urbanization is crucial for achieving sustainable urban development. Taking the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration as an example, an evaluation framework for ecological resilience is constructed from three dimensions: "resistance-adaptability-recoverability." The interaction effect between urbanization and ecological resilience is measured using a coupling coordination model, followed by simulations of the spatial distribution of ecological resilience under two scenarios—natural development and farmland protection—in 2035. The research findings are as follows: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the level of ecological resilience in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration fluctuated and declined, with a spatial distribution pattern of central concentration and peripheral dispersion. High and low levels of ecological resilience showed clustering characteristics. There were significant differences in ecological resilience levels among cities, with the gap widening. (2) The interactive effects between different types of urbanization and ecological resilience vary significantly. Specifically, population urbanization, spatial urbanization, and social urbanization exhibit trade-off effects with ecological resilience, whereas economic urbanization demonstrates a synergistic effect with ecological resilience. (3) In 2035, the level of ecological resilience in the urban agglomeration based on land use expansion under the natural development scenario is higher than that under the farmland protection scenario, mainly due to the significantly higher resistance level under the natural development scenario compared to the farmland protection scenario.

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李久林,刘俊豪,黄闯.成渝城市群生态韧性与城市化的耦合效应及未来情景模拟.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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