黑龙江省森林-城镇交界域火灾分布格局及高发区域时空动态辨识
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中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所

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国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3003101);辽宁省科技计划联合基金项目(2023-MSBA-138)


Spatio-temporal dynamics of Wildland-Urban Interface distribution patterns and high fire occurrence areas in Heilongjiang Province
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Shenyang Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFC3003101);the Liaoning Provincial Science and Technology Plan Joint Fund(2023-MSBA-138)

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    摘要:

    人口增加和城市扩张导致森林-城镇交界域的范围不断扩大,独特的火源条件、可燃物结构及气候变暖导致交界域内的火灾风险急剧上升,严重破环生态环境,威胁人民生命财产安全,研究交界域内火灾发生的空间分布及其驱动因子,能够满足交界域火灾管理和预防策略制定的实际需求。基于黑龙江省1980—2009年的森林火灾数据,采用点格局分析方法,构建交界域内人为火、雷击火的空间分布与驱动因子之间的关系,识别火灾高发区域,分析火灾发生密度的时空动态变化。结果表明:黑龙江省交界域平均林火发生密度为0.0028次·km?2·a?1,气候、植被和地形因子对人为火和雷击火的发生均具有较强的驱动作用;人为火和雷击火的发生具有明显的时空异质性,主要集中于大兴安岭、小兴安岭及黑龙江省东南部。火灾高发区域主要位于北部和东北部的森林地带,近年来并未显著扩张。本研究发展的森林-城镇交界域火灾分布格局及高发区域时空动态辨识方法可有效地评估交界域火灾发生风险,为火灾预防和管理提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Population growth and urban expansion have led to a continuous increase in the extent of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI). The combined influence of unique ignition sources, fuel structures, and climate warming has heightened the risk of wildfires in these regions, posing significant threats to the ecological environment and endangering human lives and property. The WUI areas are influenced by both natural ecosystems and human activities, their unique ignition sources, fuel structures, and the increasingly significant trend of climate warming have substantially elevated the risk of wildfires in WUI. This not only severely damages the local ecological environment but also threatens the safety of residents and their property. Investigating the spatial distribution of wildfires and their driving factors within the WUI is crucial for developing effective fire management and prevention strategies. Based on wildfire data from Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2009, this study applies spatial point pattern analysis to examine the spatial distribution characteristics of human-caused fires and lightning-caused fires within the WUI. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is used to identify the key factors that significantly influence wildfire occurrences and to further assess their relative contributions. Additionally, by analyzing the interannual variations of different climatic factors, the study applies spatial point pattern analysis to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of human-caused fires, lightning-caused fires, and total wildfires occurrence density within the WUI. This study analyzes the spatial patterns of these fire types and identifies high fire occurrence areas within the WUI of Heilongjiang Province. The results indicate that WUI areas in Heilongjiang Province are primarily distributed in the central, southeastern, and northwestern parts. The average wildfire occurrence density within the WUI is 0.0028 incidents·km?2·a?1. Climate, vegetation, and topographic factors play significant roles in driving both human-caused fires and lightning-caused fires. The occurrence of wildfire has obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity, mainly in the Greater Khingan Mountains, Lesser Khingan Mountains, and southeastern Heilongjiang Province. High fire occurrence areas are mainly located in the northern and northeastern forest regions, and their overall distribution has not expanded significantly in recent years. Among the identified high fire occurrence areas, WUI areas account for 27.5%, while the majority of high fire occurrence areas are located outside the WUI. The wildfire distribution pattern analysis and high fire occurrence areas spatio-temporal identification method developed in this study provide an effective approach for assessing wildfire risk in WUI. The findings offer a scientific basis for wildfire management within the WUI and contribute to wildfire prevention efforts. By improving wildfire control strategies, these efforts can enhance wildfire prevention and management capabilities in WUI, ultimately reducing the impact of wildfires on ecological environments and socioeconomic systems.

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关如泓,焦珂伟,常禹,吕秋爽,李凯莉,郭文华,周思羽,刘志华.黑龙江省森林-城镇交界域火灾分布格局及高发区域时空动态辨识.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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