近60年内蒙古锡林河流域极端气候及其对水文干旱的影响
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内蒙古大学生态与环境学院

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中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(2022ZY0153);国家自然科学基金项目(32160279); 内蒙古自治区重点研发和成果转化项目(2022YFHH0017)


Extreme climate and its impact on hydrological drought in the Xilin River Basin of Inner Mongolia over the past 60 years
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1.Inner Mongolia University;2.Inner mongolia university

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    摘要:

    全球变暖导致区域气候变化加剧、极端气候事件频发,改变流域水文过程,并进一步加剧径流的不确定性。阐明长时间尺度极端气候与径流变化的相互关系,对于生态环境脆弱的半干旱区具有重要意义。基于1963—2020年间的高分辨率气候和径流实测数据,采用MK检验、Pettitt检验和小波分析等方法,探究了锡林河流域极端气候变化特征及其对水文干旱的影响。研究结果表明:(1)降水量呈现?0.2mm/10a的波动下降趋势,而气温和潜在蒸散发则分别以0.4℃/10a和8.2mm/10a的速率显著上升。(2)标准化径流指数(SRI)以?0.2/10a的速率呈显著下降趋势,且在2001年发生突变,水文干旱趋势增强。(3)极端气温强度和频率指数均显著上升,月最高气温极大值(TXx)、年最大日最低气温(TNx)、夏季日数(SU)、热夜日数(TR)的气候倾向率分别为0.4℃/10a、0.5℃/10a、4.4d/10a、1.0d/10a;而极端降水指数则呈不显著下降趋势,强降水总量(R95pTOT)、普通日降水强度(SDII)、持续湿润指数(CWD)、强降水日数(R10mm)的气候倾向率分别为?0.2mm/10a、?0.1mm/10a、?0.2d/10a、?0.1d/10a。(4)SRI与降水、极端降水的强度和频率之间呈正相关,与温度、潜在蒸散发及极端温度的强度、频率呈负相关。(5)SRI与降水、气温和潜在蒸散发之间主要存在6—10a的显著共振周期,而与极端气候之间的显著共振周期则为2—3a。研究发现,锡林河流域的气候变化呈现暖干化趋势,极端气温事件显著增多而极端降水事件未能同步增加导致水文干旱风险加剧,其中降水和R10mm是影响径流变化的关键因素。本研究结果可为干旱半干旱地区在极端气候影响下的流域水资源管理提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Global warming has intensified regional climate change and increased the frequency of extreme climate events, altering watershed hydrological processes and further amplifying runoff uncertainty. Understanding the relationship between extreme climate events and runoff changes over long timescales is of great significance, particularly for ecologically fragile semi-arid regions. This study, based on high-resolution climate and runoff observational data from 1963 to 2020, employs methods such as the Mann-Kendall(MK)test, Pettitt test, and wavelet analysis to explore the characteristics of extreme climate change and its impact on hydrological drought in the Xilin River Basin. The results show that:(1)Precipitation exhibits a decreasing trend of ?0.2mm/10a, while temperature and potential evapotranspiration significantly increase at rates of 0.4°C/10a and 8.2mm/10a, respectively.(2)The standardized runoff index(SRI)significantly decreases at a rate of ?0.2/10a, with a noticeable change point in 2001, indicating an intensified hydrological drought trend.(3)The intensity and frequency of extreme temperature indices have significantly increased. The climatic trends for the monthly maximum temperature(TXx), annual maximum daily minimum temperature(TNx), summer days(SU), and hot nights(TR)are 0.4°C/10a, 0.5°C/10a, 4.4 d/10a, and 1.0 d/10a, respectively. In contrast, the extreme precipitation indices show insignificant decreasing trends. The climatic trends for heavy precipitation total(R95pTOT), simple daily precipitation intensity(SDII), consecutive wet days(CWD), and the number of heavy precipitation days(R10mm)are ?0.2mm/10a, ?0.1mm/10a, ?0.2d/10a, and ?0.1d/10a, respectively.(4)The SRI is positively correlated with precipitation and the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation, and negatively correlated with temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and the intensity and frequency of extreme temperature events.(5)Significant resonance periods of 6—10a exist between SRI and precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration, while the significant resonance period with extreme climate events is 2—3a. The study found that climate change in the Xilin River Basin is characterized by a trend of warming and aridification. Extreme temperature events have significantly increased, while extreme precipitation events have not shown a corresponding rise, which has led to an exacerbation of hydrological drought risks. Among the various factors influencing this trend, precipitation and the R10mm index, which represents the number of days with heavy precipitation, are key drivers of runoff variability. The findings of this research provide valuable insights that can aid in the management of watershed water resources in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly under the influence of extreme climatic events. These results can inform strategies for coping with the challenges posed by the changing climate in such vulnerable areas.

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曲芷程,黄绍普,刘司博,王立新,刘东伟.近60年内蒙古锡林河流域极端气候及其对水文干旱的影响.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/10.5846/stxb202410102456

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