兰坪县多模型耦合的水土保持综合措施适宜性评价
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国家重点研发计划(2022YFF1302905,2022YFF1302900)


Suitability evaluation of integrated soil-water conservation measures based on multi-model coupling in Lanping County
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    摘要:

    水土流失治理中存在的"初期成效显著-后期效益衰减"现象,一定程度上制约着水土保持综合措施的可持续性。为进一步提高区域治理成效,以西南高山峡谷区兰坪县为例,基于自然-社会视角构建了包含11项指标的评价体系,综合运用证据权模型、Logistic回归模型和证据权-Logistic回归耦合模型,开展兰坪县坡式梯田措施和经果林措施的适宜性评价研究,探究其空间分布特征与区间占比情况,以全面、客观地揭示县域水土保持综合措施的适宜性情况。研究表明:(1)采用Pearson相关性分析、方差膨胀因子方法,验证了单一模型下11项指标满足独立性要求。驱动因子解析表明,各指标在自然-社会的双维驱动下均具有一定的解释力。具体而言,坡式梯田措施适宜性受土壤可蚀性、坡度、距水源距离三因子主导,经果林措施适宜性主要由坡度、土地利用类型、距水源距离指标协同驱动。(2)自然环境因素的影响程度明显高于社会发展因素,二者协同实现"自然本底约束-社会调控反馈"的作用机制,共同推动水土资源的有效保护。(3)模型检验表明,三种模型均能反映水土保持综合措施适宜性的真实情况。其中,证据权-Logistic回归耦合模型通过多源数据融合与多维参数协同解析,显著提升了评价精度,其评价结果与实际情况更为吻合。(4)兰坪县水土保持综合措施适宜性呈现高低值交错分布的特征,形成了聚集-延展的复合空间格局。三种模型下,措施处于适宜性等级以上的占比均超过了90%,措施呈适宜状态。基于证据权-Logistic回归耦合模型得到的措施适宜性占比为95.9%,适宜性最佳。此外,三种模型的适宜性评价趋势具有一致性,均表现为水土保持综合措施的适宜性区间占比随适宜性等级的升高而逐级递增。研究为县域尺度水土保持综合措施优化提供了新思路,为缓解区域水土流失与生态退化提供了科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The phenomenon of "significant initial effectiveness but gradual decline in later-stage benefits" in soil erosion control constrains the sustainability of integrated soil-water conservation measures. To further improve the effectiveness of regional governance, this study selected Lanping County in the Southwest Alpine Canyon Area as a case study. From a nature-society perspective, an evaluation system incorporating 11 indicators was established. The weights of evidence model, Logistic regression model, and evidence-Logistic regression coupling model were applied to quantitatively assess the suitability of slope terrace measures and economic fruit forest measures in Lanping County, and to investigate their spatial distribution patterns and class interval proportions. To comprehensively and objectively reveal the suitability of integrated soil-water conservation measures at the county scale. Key findings included: (1) Pearson correlation analysis and VIF methods were applied to verify the independence of all 11 indicators in single-model contexts. The driving factor analysis shows that each indicator has a certain explanatory power under the bivariate driving of nature-society. In concrete terms, the suitability of slope terraces measures is dominated by three factors, soil erodibility, slope and distance from water, and the suitability of economic fruit forest measures is primarily co-driven by slope, land use types and distance from water. (2) The impact of natural environmental factors is significantly higher than that social development factors, and the two factors synergistically achieve the mechanism of "natural background constraint-social regulation feedback", together to promote the effective protection of soil-water resources. (3) Model validation demonstrated that all three models effectively reflected the actual suitability of integrated measures. Notably, the evidence-Logistic regression coupling model significantly enhances the accuracy and robustness of model evaluation through multi-source data fusion and multi-dimensional parameter collaborative analysis, and its evaluation results are more in line with the actual situation. (4) The suitability of soil-water conservation measures in Lanping County exhibited distinct spatial clustering of high and low value zones, formed a composite space pattern of gathering-extension. Under all three models, over 90% of the integrated measures met or exceeded the suitability threshold. Specifically, the evidence-Logistic regression coupling model achieved the highest suitability proportion at 95.9%. Moreover, the three models demonstrate consistent suitability evaluation trends, all showing the proportion of suitable zones for integrated soil-water conservation measures increases progressively with rising suitability levels. This research provided novel insights for optimizing county-scale soil-water conservation strategies and scientific support for mitigating regional soil erosion and ecological degradation.

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徐晓铮,张会兰,安妮,谷方正.兰坪县多模型耦合的水土保持综合措施适宜性评价.生态学报,2026,46(2):805~821

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