湖北省主要农作物关键物候期时空分异特征及影响因素分析
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1.华中师范大学城市与环境科学学院;2.长江水土保持科技(湖北)有限公司

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中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2023T160254);中央高校基本科研业务费资助(CCNU24JCPT012,CCNU24JCPT031)


Characterization of spatial-temporal variability and influencing factors of key phenological period of major crops in Hubei Province
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1.Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis Simulation of Hubei Province/School of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Central China Normal University;2.China

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the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2023T160254); Basic Research Funds for Central Universities (CCNU24JCPT012, CCNU24JCPT031)

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    摘要:

    摘要:物候是表征气候变化的敏感指示器,分析作物物候变化对于应对气候变化以及指导当地农业生产具有重要意义。针对湖北省主要农作物——水稻、冬小麦和油菜,根据21个站点观测数据,分析2001—2012年不同农作物类型关键物候期的时空变化特征,并结合地形和气候数据,探究作物物候变化的影响因素。结果表明:(1)对于同一种作物(水稻、冬小麦或油菜),各站点物候期之间的差距从出苗期至成熟期逐渐缩小;山区站点物候期年际变化小于平原;生殖生长阶段年际变化小于营养生长阶段。(2)2001—2012年平原地区水稻和冬小麦营养生长期出现提前趋势,生殖生长期以推迟趋势为主;在山区,水稻和冬小麦各物候期多以推迟为主。油菜则相反。(3)水稻、冬小麦与油菜的出苗期主要受播种时间的影响(0.69≤R≤0.96,P<0.01)。不同作物物候期对气候因子的响应存在山区—平原空间分异特征。水稻出苗期至分蘖期在平原受温度和降水正相关主导,在山区受温度正相关主导;分蘖期至成熟期在平原受温度负相关主导,在山区受温度和降水负相关主导。冬小麦物候期在平原地区主要受温度影响,降水和太阳辐射在拔节期和抽穗期作用显著;在山区由温度主导转为温度和太阳辐射共同主导。油菜生长受温度主导,山区物候期与温度的相关性显著强于平原地区。研究结果为湖北省不同区域农业适应性管理措施的精准实施提供了科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Phenology serves as a highly sensitive indicator reflecting the impacts of climate change, Analyzing crop phenological changes is of great importance for effectively addressing climate change challenges, optimizing agricultural strategies, and guiding more informed local agricultural production practices. We conducted an analysis on the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of key phenological stages for major crops in Hubei Province (i.e., rice, winter wheat, and rapeseed) during the period from 2001 to 2012, based on observational data from 21 stations. Additionally, we explored the influencing factors of crop phenological changes by incorporating data on topography and climate. The results were as follows (1) For the same crop (rice, winter wheat or rapeseed), the differences in phenological stages among stations gradually decreased from the emergence stage to the maturity stage; the inter-annual variability of phenological stages was smaller in mountainous stations than in plains; and the inter-annual variability during the reproductive growth stage was less than that during the vegetative growth stage. (2) From 2001 to 2012, in plain areas, there was a tendency for the vegetative growth stage of rice and winter wheat to advance, while the reproductive growth stage mainly showed a delay. In mountainous regions, most phenological stages tended to be delayed. The opposite pattern was observed for rapeseed. (3) The emergence periods of rice, winter wheat, and rapeseed were primarily influenced by sowing dates. (0.69≤R≤0.96,P<0.01).There was a spatial variation in the mountain-plain differentiation in the response of different crop phenological stages to climatic factors. From the emergence to tillering stage of rice, the positive correlation with temperature and precipitation dominated in plain areas, while in mountainous areas, it was mainly positively correlated with temperature. From the tillering to maturity stage, the negative correlation with temperature dominated in plain areas, whereas in mountainous areas, both temperature and precipitation showed a negative correlation that was dominant. The phenological stages of winter wheat were primarily influenced by temperature in plain areas, while precipitation and solar radiation played significant roles during the jointing and heading stages; in mountainous regions, the influence shifted from being dominated solely by temperature to being jointly dominated by both temperature and solar radiation. The growth of rapeseed was primarily influenced by temperature, and the correlation between phenological stages and temperature in mountainous regions was significantly stronger than that in plain areas. The research findings have provided a scientific basis for the precise implementation of adaptive agricultural management measures tailored to different regions of Hubei Province.

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薛秉愉,王聪,胡琼,朱娜娜,邓梦怡,是非,王梦楠,吴宜进.湖北省主要农作物关键物候期时空分异特征及影响因素分析.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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