Peatlands, which covers approximately 3%–4% of the global terrestrial area, store approximately one-third of the Earth's soil carbon, making them a vital component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. However, at present, as extensive peatlands are being drained, which in the context of climate change, leads to water level fluctuations that may exhibit various trends, it is evident that under the influence of future climate change both the fluctuations in water levels and the carbon source–sink processes within peatlands remain highly uncertain, thereby prompting many countries and regions to promote the scientific conservation of these ecosystems. Northeastern China, which is one of the largest peatland distribution areas in the country, faces significant challenges in conservation work because the estimation of peatland distribution in the region is subject to discrepancies among different studies. In response to these challenges, an integrated model, which combines the BIOMOD2 ensemble model with geospatial big data, has been employed to simulate the potential distribution of peatlands across northeastern China. This integrated approach was developed based on 2041 peatland sample distributions and on an indicator system that was constructed using 30 variables, which include factors related to climate, soil, vegetation, and topography, and which collectively serve to characterize the ecological conditions of peatland formation. The integrated model, which has been established to identify the potential distribution of peatlands, has also been combined with the Human Footprint Index, through which the conservation potential of peatlands has been explored. The results show that, compared with single models that have been previously used, the BIOMOD2 ensemble model has improved prediction accuracy, has avoided the risk of overfitting, and has demonstrated high robustness in its predictions. Northeastern China is found to contain at least 63,803 km2 of potential peatlands, which are mainly distributed in areas where the soil organic carbon content is above 7.93 g/kg, where the elevation ranges from 630 to 927 m, and where the potential evapotranspiration is between 4 and 10 mm. In areas with high potential peatland distribution, the proportion of areas under protection is 9.8%, while the areas recommended for protection account for 40.61%, those serving as buffer zones account for 17.79%, and those designated for restoration account for 31.8%. It is of great significance to identify the potential distribution areas of peatlands and the hotspots for their restoration and protection, which will contribute to the achievement of the national "dual carbon" strategic goals. The integration of BIOMOD2 with multi-dimensional environmental data resolves prior estimation discrepancies, offering a replicable framework for balancing ecological preservation with sustainable land-use planning. By delineating spatially explicit conservation targets, this study enhances the scientific basis for protecting carbon-rich ecosystems and advancing climate mitigation goals.