中国城市绿色发展效率的时空演变、差异及空间收敛性
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国家自然科学基金面上项目(72374063);河北省在读研究生创新能力培养资助项目(CXZZSS2024091)


Research on the temporal and spatial evolution,differences,and spatial convergence of urban green development efficiency in China
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (72374063);Hebei Province Graduate Student Innovation Ability Training Funding Project (CXZZSS2024091)

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    摘要:

    提升城市绿色发展效率并实现收敛是促进城市可持续发展的有效途径之一。借助超效率SBM模型,测算了2003-2021年中国269个地级及以上城市的绿色发展效率,其后,采用地理信息分析、核密度估计、二阶泰尔指数重点考察了该效率值的时空演变规律和区域差异,并利用空间β收敛模型检验了269个城市、东、中、西部和23个省(自治区)的空间收敛性。研究发现:①269个城市及东、中、西部的城市绿色发展效率均值都呈现先降后升的"U"型时序特征;空间上各时期呈现东西高、中部低的格局,晋冀鲁豫四省为低值集聚区,东南沿海为高值集聚区;效率的时空演变和格局具备相对稳定性。②效率值存在极化特征和梯度特征,研究期内269个城市及东、中、西部效率值的内部绝对差异均有扩大趋势,这种差异主要来源于省内差异水平提高。③在考虑空间外溢性的情况下,269个城市及东、中、西部均存在显著的(绝对/条件)β收敛特征,收敛幅度次序为东部>西部>中部,269个城市的收敛幅度介于中部和西部之间。而各省(自治区)也在不同程度上呈现出显著的(绝对/条件)β收敛趋势,但收敛周期差异较大。此外,研究发现条件β收敛的周期短于绝对β收敛,理论上城市绿色发展效率将率先收敛至自身的稳态均衡水平。上述发现为系统清晰地了解中国城市绿色发展效率的空间格局、演变特征提供了支撑,可为缩减效率的不平衡性提供有益参考。

    Abstract:

    Finding a green development trajectory that harmonizes economic growth with ecological conservation is essential for China's modernization process. Improving urban green development efficiency (UGDE) and attaining its convergence are among the potent strategies for fostering urban sustainability. Utilizing the super SBM model,this research quantified UGDE across 269 prefecture-level and above cities in China spanning from 2003 to 2021. Then,geographic information analysis and kernel density methods were applied to estimate the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of the UGDE. Moreover,the research examined efficiency disparities across diverse hierarchical levels employing the second-order Theil index. Finally,the spatial β convergence model was utilized to assess convergence patterns across the 269 cities, eastern, central and western regions, and 23 provinces (autonomous regions) in China. The research discovered that: ① Throughout the study period,the mean values of 269 cities fluctuated between 0.41 and 0.54,indicating relative stability and significant potential for enhancement according to theoretical projections. The average value of UGDE across the 269 cities,as well as in the eastern,central,and western regions,followed a U shaped temporal pattern,with a decline followed by an increase. Spatially,a high value in the east and a low value in the center were observed,with the region of Shanxi-Hebei-Shandong-Henan being a low-value cluster, and the southeast coast area being a high-value cluster. ② The UGDE show polarization and gradient characteristics,with the internal absolute differences in efficiency values widening over time. These differences mainly come from the increasing inter-provincial disparity after 2013. ③ When considering spatial spillover effects,the 269 cities, eastern, central and western regions, and 23 provinces (autonomous regions) display significant (absolute/conditional) β convergence characteristics. The order of convergence rate is eastern > western > central region, and the convergence rate of 269 cities in China is between central and western region. Provinces demonstrate diverse levels of significant (absolute/conditional) spatial β convergence tendencies,yet there are marked differences in the convergence timeframes. Additionally,the study reveals that conditional β convergence occurs faster than absolute β convergence,suggesting that UGDE will theoretically first converge toward its own steady-state equilibrium level. These findings provide a clear data profile for understanding the spatial patterns and evolution characteristics of China's UGDE,serving as a valuable reference for reducing efficiency imbalances. Compared with similar studies,there are two possible marginal contributions in this paper: Firstly,this paper incorporates the setting of a global common production frontier into the super SBM model,thereby enhancing the comparability of UGDE across different years. Secondly,the research considered the scale effect and spatial spillover effect in the convergence of UGDE,and conducted detailed tests of spatial convergence at multiple levels,including the national,regional,and provincial levels,which to some extent compensates for the lack of precision in previous convergence tests.

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高星,郭忠元,赵美冉,李桂君,王琦.中国城市绿色发展效率的时空演变、差异及空间收敛性.生态学报,2025,45(8):3790~3805

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