基于生态知识-机器学习模型的黄土高原铁杆蒿草地生态系统碳水通量模拟及其影响机制研究
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1.中国科学院教育部水土保持与生态环境研究中心;2.中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所;3.中国科学院大学;4.西北农林科技大学水土保持科学与工程学院;5.西北农林科技大学林学院;6.西北农林科技大学资源与环境学院;7.西北农林科技大学

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目),省、部研究计划基金


Simulation and influencing mechanisms of carbon and water fluxes of Artemisia sacrorum grassland ecosystem in the Loess Plateau based on an ecological knowledge-machine learning model
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1.The Research Center of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Education;2.Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources;3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences;4.Northwest A&5.F University

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The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan), Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shaanxi Province

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    摘要:

    净生态系统CO2交换量 (NEE) 和蒸散 (ET) 是表征半干旱区生态系统碳水循环能力的重要指标。对碳水通量动态变化的准确模拟和驱动机制的深入分析,有助于明确黄土高原半干旱区草地生态系统的功能及其对气候变化的响应。基于黄土高原铁杆蒿草地生态系统2018—2022年日尺度通量观测数据,使用多元线性回归模型、机器学习模型 (随机森林、支持向量机和人工神经网络模型) 和融合生态学知识与机器学习的生态知识-机器学习 (EML) 模型分别对NEE和ET进行拟合。其中,有6种基于不同生态假设的EML模型用于拟合NEE,7种基于不同生态假设的EML模型用于拟合ET。最后构建拟合效果最好和解释能力最优的EML模型并探究环境和植被因素对NEE和ET的影响。结果表明:(1) 包含了气象因素、土壤水分因素和植被因素的EML模型对NEE和ET的拟合效果最好,R2和RMSE分别为0.81和0.70 g C m-2 d-1,0.83和0.48 mm/d,MRE和MAE分别为1.72和0.48 g C m-2 d-1,0.29和0.30 mm/d。该模型在NEE和ET上的拟合能力较多元线性回归模型提升了24.62%和12.16%,较机器学习模型平均提升了13.02%和6.87%。(2) 空气温度是NEE和ET的主要影响因素,重要性占比分别为63.12%和60.38%。6℃和22℃是草地NEE日均空气温度的阈值,在6—22℃之间NEE处于下降趋势,在22℃后NEE变为平稳趋势。0℃和22℃是草地ET日均空气温度的阈值,当空气温度大于22℃后,ET由上升趋势转变为平稳趋势。(3) 土壤水分因素在NEE和ET的重要影响因素中的占比分别为17.13%和5.66%,NEE对土壤水分的敏感性高于ET。研究结果有助于完善半干旱区草地生态系统碳水通量的模拟方法,并明确其对环境和植被因素的响应。

    Abstract:

    Net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and evapotranspiration (ET) are important indicators for characterizing carbon and water cycling capacity in semi-arid areas ecosystems. This study presents an accurate modeling of the dynamics of carbon and water fluxes and an in-depth analysis of their driving mechanisms. It helps to clarify the functions of grassland ecosystems and their responses to climate change in the semi-arid regions of the Loess Plateau. Based on daily-scale flux observations of Artemisia sacrorum grassland ecosystem in the Loess Plateau from 2018 to 2022, we used a multiple linear regression model, machine learning models (Random Forest, Support Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network model) and ecological knowledge-machine learning (EML) models to fit NEE and ET, respectively. Among EML models, six models based on different ecological assumptions were used to fit NEE, and seven models based on different ecological assumptions were used to fit ET. We then constructed the best-fitting and best-explained EML model and investigated the effects of environmental and vegetation factors on NEE and ET. The results showed that: (1) The EML model incorporating meteorological, soil moisture and vegetation factors had the best fit to NEE and ET. The R2 and RMSE of the EML model were 0.81 and 0.70 g C m-2 d-1, 0.83 and 0.48 mm/d, and the MRE and MAE of the EML model were 1.72 and 0.48 g C m-2 d-1, 0.29 and 0.30 mm/d, respectively. The fitting effect of this model on NEE and ET increased by 24.62% and 12.16% compared with the multiple linear regression model, and increased by 13.02% and 6.87% on average compared with machine learning models. (2) Air temperature was the primary influencing factor for NEE and ET, with importance values proportions being 63.12% and 60.38% respectively. 6℃ and 22℃ were the thresholds of the daily average air temperature of grassland NEE. NEE was in a downward trend between 6 and 22℃, and became a stable trend after 22℃. 0℃ and 22℃ were the thresholds of daily average air temperature of grassland ET. When the air temperature was greater than 22℃, ET transitioned from an upward trend to a stable trend. (3) Soil moisture factors accounted for 17.13% and 5.66% of the importance values on NEE and ET respectively. NEE was more sensitive to soil moisture than ET. The results contribute to improving the simulation method of carbon and water fluxes, and clarifying their responses to environmental and vegetation factors in grassland ecosystems in semi-arid areas.

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张泽凌,周莹,姜峻,王丽娜,邓旭,安志超,唐亚坤.基于生态知识-机器学习模型的黄土高原铁杆蒿草地生态系统碳水通量模拟及其影响机制研究.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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