极端气候对粮食生产的影响及其作用机制——兼论农地流转的调节与门槛效应
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国家自然科学基金(72004225);教育部人文社科基金(24YJAZH036);北京市社会科学基金(23GLB029);中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目成果(19XN0002)采用日期:2025-01-24


A study on the impact and mechanisms of extreme climate on grain production: the moderating and threshold effects of farmland transfer
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    摘要:

    粮食安全对国家稳定和社会福祉至关重要。随着气候变化的不断加剧,极端天气事件对粮食生产的影响日益严重,给粮食供应带来了巨大挑战。因此,深入研究极端气候对粮食生产的具体影响,并探索有效的应对策略,具有重要的现实意义。基于理论分析,研究利用2007-2020年中国296个城市的面板数据,实证探讨了极端气候对粮食生产保障的影响,并分析了农地流转在其中的调节机制与门槛效应。研究发现:(1)在全国样本中,极端高温、极端低温和极端降水三大极端气候因子均对粮食生产产生显著的负向影响。其中,极端高温和极端低温在1%的显著性水平上对粮食生产产生负向影响,极端降水在5%的显著性水平上对粮食生产产生负向影响。(2)从不同粮食生产区域来看,极端气候对粮食主产区的粮食生产负向影响最大;在产销平衡区,极端高温显著抑制了粮食生产;而在主销区,极端气候对粮食生产的影响并不显著。(3)农地流转能显著调节极端降水对粮食生产的影响,但在调节极端高温和极端低温对粮食生产的影响方面并不显著,尤其是对粮食生产至关重要的粮食主产区与产销平衡区。(4)极端气候对粮食生产的影响存在单一门槛效应。当农地流转水平跨过门槛值10.8905后,极端气候对粮食生产的影响不再显著。因此,为保障粮食生产安全,提升应对极端气候的能力,应积极贯彻落实“藏粮于地”方针,通过农地流转优化种植结构,实现规模经济,从而提高农业生产效率。

    Abstract:

    Food security is critically important for national stability and societal well-being. With the acceleration of climate change, extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense, exerting substantial pressure on agricultural productivity and food supply stability. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive understanding of how extreme climate conditions affect food production and identifying effective strategies to mitigate and adapt to these impacts. Based on a robust theoretical framework, this study utilizes panel data from 296 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2020 to empirically analyze the effects of extreme climate events on food production security. Furthermore, it examines the moderating role and threshold effects of farmland transfer in mitigating these impacts, providing valuable insights into the mechanisms underlying these relationships. The key findings of the study are summarized as follows: (1) At the national level, all three major extreme climate factors-extreme high temperatures, extreme low temperatures, and extreme precipitation-have a statistically significant negative impact on food production. Extreme high temperatures and extreme low temperatures exhibit negative effects at the 1% significance level, while extreme precipitation negatively affects food production at the 5% significance level; (2) Regional disparities are evident in the impacts of extreme climate conditions on food production. The adverse effects are most pronounced in major grain-producing areas, where extreme climate factors significantly suppress agricultural productivity. In production-consumption-balanced regions, extreme high temperatures exhibit a substantial inhibitory effect on food production. Conversely, in grain-consuming regions, the impacts of extreme climate events are not statistically significant; (3) Farmland transfer serves as an important moderating mechanism in mitigating the negative effects of extreme precipitation on food production. This moderating effect is most pronounced in major grain-producing regions and production-consumption-balanced regions but remains statistically insignificant in grain-consuming regions. However, farmland transfer shows limited moderating effects on the impacts of extreme high and low temperatures, particularly in regions of critical importance to food security; (4) The relationship between extreme climate conditions and food production demonstrates a single-threshold effect. Once farmland transfer exceeds a critical threshold level of 10.8905, the negative impact of extreme climate conditions becomes statistically insignificant. In conclusion, enhancing food security in the face of extreme climate events necessitates proactive and targeted strategies. The effective implementation of the "storing grain in the land" policy is essential for improving agricultural resilience. Promoting farmland transfer to optimize cropping structures can achieve economies of scale and enhance agricultural productivity, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of extreme climate conditions and ensuring long-term food supply stability.

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郭珊,蒋博,吉雪强.极端气候对粮食生产的影响及其作用机制——兼论农地流转的调节与门槛效应.生态学报,2025,45(7):3169~3182

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