内蒙古森林碳汇价值的时空演变格局、影响因素与空间外溢效应研究
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1.内蒙古财经大学;2.中国科学院大学

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国家自然科学基金项目(42461045‬); 内蒙古自然科学基金资助项目(2022QN07004); “党的二十大精神研究”哲学社会科学重大专项(ESDZX202324);内蒙古财经大学自治区“五大任务”研究专项重点项目(NCXWD2404)


Spatiotemporal evolution pattern, influencing factors and spatial spillover effect of forest carbon sequestration value in Inner Mongolia
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Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics

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National Natural Science Foundation of China(42461045‬); Inner Mongolia Natural Science Foundation Project(2022QN07004); Major Special Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences on the Study of the Spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(ESDZX202324);Key Project of the "Five Major Tasks" Research Special Project of Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics Autonomous Region (NCXWD2404)

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    摘要:

    森林碳汇对于减缓全球气候变暖、推动我国碳中和目标实现具有重要意义。基于最优价格法、碳税法和造林成本法评估2009—2023年内蒙古12盟市的森林碳汇价值并分析其时空演变格局,从经济、社会、自然、规模四个维度构建指标体系并应用空间计量模型揭示森林碳汇价值的影响因素、相关性特征和空间外溢效应。结果表明:①时间上,内蒙古森林碳汇价值总体呈增长趋势且以蒙东和蒙中的盟市增速较快,空间上整体呈现“东高西低”的演变格局。②内蒙古森林碳汇价值具有显著的全局空间关联性且空间集聚程度不恒定,低低相关盟市为阿拉善盟、巴彦淖尔市和乌海市,高低相关盟市为呼伦贝尔市,兴安盟则表现为交替低高相关和高高相关。③各盟市间存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,相邻盟市森林碳汇价值每变化1%,本盟市将同向变化0.205%;城镇化水平对森林碳汇价值具有正向影响作用且主要影响本地森林碳汇价值,劳动力要素投入程度、地方财政支出和林业管理水平对相邻盟市呈现负向影响。研究结果为深入理解森林碳汇价值变化的内在机理,推动森林碳汇价值实现和可持续经营管理提供有益参考和借鉴。

    Abstract:

    Forest carbon sequestration is crucial for mitigating global warming and promoting the realization of China's carbon neutrality goal. Using the optimal price method, carbon tax method and afforestation cost method, the forest carbon sink value of 12 league cities in Inner Mongolia from 2009 to 2023 was evaluated and its spatiotemporal evolution pattern was analyzed. The index system was constructed from the four dimensions ofeconomy, society, nature, and scale, and the spatial econometric model was used to reveal the influencing factors, correlation characteristics and spatial spillover effects of forest carbon sink value. The results showed that: ①Over time, the forest carbon sink value of Inner Mongolia showed an increasing trend,with faster growth rates in eastern and central Mongolia. Spatially, the overall spatial pattern was "high in the east and low in the west". ②The forest carbon sink value of Inner Mongolia had a significant global spatial correlation and the degree of spatial agglomeration was not constant. The low-low correlation league cities were Alashan League, Bayannaoer City and Wuhai City; while the high-low correlation league city was Hulunbuir City; and the Xing'an League showed alternating low-high correlation and high-high correlation. ③There is a significant positive spatial spillover effect among the leagues and cities. Specifically, for every 1% change in the forest carbon sequestration value of neighboring leagues or cities, the corresponding value in the local area changes in the same direction by 0.205%. The level of urbanization positively impacts forest carbon sequestration value, primarily influencing local forest carbon sequestration. In contrast, factors such as labor input, local government fiscal expenditure, and forestry management levels exhibit a negative impact on the forest carbon sequestration value of neighboring leagues or cities. The results of this study provide an important reference for in-depth understanding of the internal mechanism of forest carbon sink value change, and promoting the realization of forest carbon sink value and sustainable management.

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李雪敏,潘越明,李艺格,张耘恺,王菲菲.内蒙古森林碳汇价值的时空演变格局、影响因素与空间外溢效应研究.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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