2001-2020年中国植被降水敏感性时空演变
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国家自然科学基金项目(42161058)


Spatio-temporal evolution of precipitation sensitivity of vegetation in China from 2001 to 2020
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    植被对降水的敏感性作为评估植被对降水响应程度及预测生态系统未来变化的关键指标,其在不同干湿区域及植被类型中的敏感性及其变化趋势尚未明确。研究采用线性回归模型,结合两种植被指数,对中国2001年至2020年植被对降水的敏感性进行了估算,并对其空间格局及变化趋势进行了分析。研究结果显示,中国植被对降水的敏感性总体呈现正值,并且呈现出增长趋势。空间分布上,植被的降水敏感性与区域干旱程度呈正相关,具体表现为干旱区 > 半干旱区 > 半湿润区 > 湿润区;不同植被类型对降水的敏感性差异显著,其中受水分条件限制较大的温带荒漠和草原区的敏感性最高,而降水常年充足或受温度限制的区域,如热带雨林区和寒温带针叶林区的敏感性最低。从时间上看,干旱区、半干旱区、半湿润区植被的降水敏感性呈上升趋势,而湿润区则呈现下降趋势,这一现象可归因于植被增长导致的需水量增加以及增温引起的地表蒸散发增强。此外,研究还计算了不同干湿区域降水敏感性变化对整体敏感性增加的贡献度,结果指出干旱区对敏感性变化趋势的贡献度最大,两种植被指数均显示干旱区的贡献度超过50%,其次是半干旱区。因此,在全球持续增温的背景下,植被对降水变化的敏感性将日益增强,必须采取针对性措施加强水资源管理以应对气候变化。

    Abstract:

    Vegetation responsiveness to precipitation is a vital indicator for evaluating vegetation reactions to water cycle variations and forecasting forthcoming ecological shifts. However,the sensitivity and associated trends across diverse arid and humid ecosystems,as well as varying vegetation types,are still poorly understood. This study employs a linear regression model,integrating two vegetation indices,to estimate the sensitivity of vegetation in China to precipitation from 2001 to 2020,and analyzes its spatial distribution and temporal progression. The findings show that the aggregate precipitation sensitivity of Chinese vegetation is affirmative and displays an upward trajectory. Spatially,there is a positive correlation between vegetation sensitivity to rainfall and regional aridity levels,with the order: arid regions > semi-arid regions > semi-humid regions > humid regions. Notable disparities in precipitation sensitivity are observed among different vegetation types,with the highest sensitivity found in temperate desert and grassland ecosystems,where water availability is significantly constrained,while the lowest sensitivity is noted in regions with ample precipitation or temperature-limited ecosystems,such as tropical rainforests and boreal coniferous forests. Temporally,the precipitation sensitivity of vegetation in arid,semi-arid,and semi-humid regions exhibits an upward trend,whereas a decline is observed in humid regions. This phenomenon can be attributed to increased water demand driven by vegetation growth and enhanced surface evapotranspiration resulting from climate warming. Additionally,this study quantifies the contributions of changes in precipitation sensitivity across different arid and humid zones to the overall increase in sensitivity,indicating that arid regions contribute the most to this trend,with both vegetation indices showing contributions exceeding 50%,followed by semi-arid regions. Consequently,amidst ongoing global warming,it is anticipated that vegetation's sensitivity to precipitation variability will intensify,requiring strategic approaches to bolster water resource management in light of climate change.

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苗沛东,李传华,朱鸿娟,钟诗瑶,乔鹏飞,刘翠,张亮.2001-2020年中国植被降水敏感性时空演变.生态学报,2025,45(8):3672~3683

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