Despite the rapid increase in demand for meat and dairy, China's northern grasslands cannot support expanded livestock production, as the current livestock numbers have already surpassed the ecological carrying capacity. Thus, the development of grasslands in South China is vital for securing future supplies of meat and dairy and could help ease the grazing pressure on the northern rangelands. However, gaps in knowledge remain regarding the development potential of pasture-based livestock husbandry in South China, and the production-ecology coordination issues of southern grasslands are also in urgent need of research. To answer this question, this study focuses on the production-ecology synergy of southern pasture-based livestock husbandry, assessing the spatial distribution characteristics of forage demand and potential supply capacity in eight southern provinces at the municipal scale from 2000 to 2020, and analyzing the potential ecological impacts of the development of southern pasture-based livestock husbandry. Based on these research results, we analyze the trade-offs and synergies between the development of pasture-based livestock husbandry and ecological conservation in South China. The results show that the eight southern provinces have abundant grassland resources, with a total dry forage grass production of 4.49×10¹¹ kg, mainly concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou and western Sichuan, where the yields account for 73.50% of the total production. Although the production of natural forage grasses exceeds the consumption of local livestock in southern provinces, with about 71% of the cities showing the forage surplus. This result indicates a huge potential for the development of ecological pasture-based livestock husbandry in South China. However, developing pasture-based livestock husbandry could potentially introduce adverse ecological impacts in China's southern grasslands. Taking Yunnan Province and Sichuan Province as examples, a total of 25 cities have a higher potential for the development of pasture-based livestock husbandry. Nevertheless, these cities have many intact habitats of superior quality with an average value reaching 0.52 and they also exhibit excellent performance in providing vital ecosystem services, such as carbon storage at 837.24 g C/m² and water yield at 515.66 mm, respectively. This suggests that promoting pasture-based livestock husbandry in these areas might come at the expense of diminished ecosystem service function. Therefore, this study advocates for strategic planning for ecological pasture-based livestock husbandry in the southern grasslands. This study recommends prioritizing areas with lower impacts on soil and water conservation and biodiversity, while implementing stringent conservation measures in southern regions with important ecosystem services to harmonize production and ecological development.