基于投入产出的中国沿海地区水-能系统耦合研究
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教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790028);辽宁省教育厅高等学校基本科研项目课题(LJ112410165076)


Coupling study of water-energy system in China's coastal areas based on input-output analysis
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    摘要:

    随着中国沿海地区经济迅速发展和人口急剧增长,水和能源需求大幅攀升,沿海地区面临严峻的水和能源短缺挑战。将水和能源看作一个整体系统,研究水-能系统耦合对制定水-能协同管理政策、实现区域可持续发展具有重要意义。目前水-能系统的研究逐渐丰富,但从虚拟水和隐含能流动视角下结合投入产出分析和耦合协调度模型探讨水-能系统耦合的研究较少。采用投入产出分析模型测度了虚拟水和隐含能的流动、水和能源的利用效率以及用水和能耗的拉动效应;从用水与能耗的相对系数和相对乘数两方面研究了水-能系统关联,分析沿海各省各部门相对于沿海地区整体水平下的水-能联系强度;考虑耦合网络中各省各部门的虚拟水和隐含能流动特性,利用耦合协调度模型衡量水-能系统耦合协调状态。研究发现:(1)虚拟水净流入的5个省同样是隐含能的净流入省,包括广东、浙江、天津、山东和福建,此外海南也是隐含能的净流入省。农业、建筑业是虚拟水流动关键部门,建筑业是隐含能流动关键部门。主要能源部门中炼焦(石油加工和炼焦)是与用水密切相关的关键领域,针对各省在水部门耗能方面存在的差异政府应采取不同的措施。(2)各省水生产供应业均呈现HwHe的特点,生产过程中应同时注重节水节能,HwLe、LwHe部门应分别将节水与节能作为缓解资源压力的重点。(3)建筑业(SwSe)的用水和能耗相对乘数均远高于沿海地区平均水平,与其他部门表现出强烈的水-能联系,是节水和节能的关键部门。(4)沿海地区各部门水-能系统的耦合协调水平都处于协调发展状态,但结合水-能利用效率和拉动效应划分,各部门耦合协调发展水平存在一定差异,需采取针对性措施以协调水和能源利用关系、部门间拉动效应及虚拟水和隐含能的流动。本文旨在为沿海地区水-能协同管理政策的制定提供参考。

    Abstract:

    As the economy develops rapidly and the population grows in the coastal areas of China,the region's water and energy demand has surged sharply,and the coastal areas are facing severe water and energy shortages. Considering water and energy as a intergrated system,it is of great significance to study the coupling of water and energy systems to formulate water-energy co-management policies and achieve regional sustainable development. At present,the research of water-energy system is becoming more comprehensive,but there are few researches on water-energy system coupling from the perspective of virtual water and embodied energy flow,combined with input-output analysis and coupling coordination degree model. In this paper,the flow of virtual water and embodied energy,the utilization efficiency of water and energy,and the pulling effect of water use and energy consumption are calculated with the help of input-output analysis. Next,water-energy system nexus is studied from the aspects of the relative coefficient and relative multiplier of water use and energy consumption,and analyzes the intensity of water-energy nexus of each sector relative to the overall level of coastal areas. Finally,considering the virtual water and embodied energy flow characteristics of each province and department in the coupling network,the coupling coordination degree model is used to measure the coupling coordination state of the water-energy system. The results show that: (1) The five provinces and cities with virtual water net inflow are also net inflow provinces with embodied energy,including Guangdong,Zhejiang,Tianjin,Shandong and Fujian,and Hainan is also a net inflow province with embodied energy. Agriculture and construction are the key sector of virtual water flow,and the construction industry is the key sector of embodied energy flow. Among the major energy sectors,coking (petroleum processing and coking) is a key area closely related to water use,according to the differences in energy consumption of water sector in different provinces, the government should take different measures. (2) The water production and supply sector in all provinces exhibits HwHe traits,indicating that conservation efforts for water and energy should be pursued concurrently during production. Meanwhile,sectors identified as HwLe and LwHe should prioritize water and energy conservation to mitigate resource strain. (3) The construction industry (SwSe),which has a much higher relative water and energy consumption multiplier than the average in coastal areas,shows strong water-energy nexus with other sectors,and is a key sector for water and energy conservation. (4) The coupling and coordination level of water-energy systems in various sectors in coastal areas is in a state of coordinated development,but there are certain differences in the coupling and coordinated development level of various sectors in combination with the division of water-energy use efficiency and pulling effect,and targeted measures need to be taken to coordinate the relationship between water and energy use,the pulling effect between sectors and the flow of virtual water and embodied energy. This paper aims to provide a reference for the formulation of water-energy co-management policies in coastal areas.

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赵良仕,杨爽,许淑婷.基于投入产出的中国沿海地区水-能系统耦合研究.生态学报,2025,45(6):2851~2867

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