区域生态系统服务耦合态势及其驱动力——基于GeoDetector和fsQCA集成分析
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72163027)


A study of coupled dynamics of regional ecosystem services and its driving forces using GeoDetector and fsQCA integrated analysis
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    摘要:

    生态系统服务耦合对于经济-社会-环境协同演化具有重要意义。以新疆和田地区为例,基于InVEST模型、耦合协调度模型及地理探测器模型(GeoDetector)、模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)方法,评估2020年碳储存、土壤保持、水源涵养、生境支持4种关键生态系统服务价值并探讨耦合态势,探究实现服务耦合的驱动因子及驱动机制。研究发现:(1)生态系统服务耦合协调程度整体较低,基于差异性土地利用方式和程度呈现空间异质性特征;(2)GeoDetector模型证明单一主导因子温度、降雨、地形起伏度以及牲畜规模,并发现因子两两交互存在增强作用;(3)fsQCA分析发现存在5条有效多元条件组态,"自然因子主导型" "人文因子主导型" "自然人文因子联合主导型" 3类差异化组态路径揭示6个前因变量的异质性组合充分实现生态系统服务的耦合。GeoDetector和fsQCA方法的结合为生态系统服务驱动力解析提供一个全面而创新的视角,根据研究成果,生态系统服务的科学管理不仅要关注单因子主导和双因子交互作用,还应考虑多维因子的综合效应,以推动耦合持续优化、实现生态系统可持续发展。

    Abstract:

    The interplay of ecosystem services plays a crucial role in the integrated development of the economy, society, and environment. This research focuses on the Hotan region in Xinjiang as its subject of study. By employing the InVEST model, the coupling coordination degree model, GeoDetector, and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method (fsQCA), this study assesses the values of four pivotal ecosystem services: carbon sequestration, soil conservation, water resource protection, and habitat provision in 2020. Furthermore, it analyzes the degree of coupling and coordination among these types of ecosystem services and their trends, investigates the driving factors and mechanisms behind service integration, and discerns spatial heterogeneity based on differential land-use patterns and intensities. The findings of this study are as follows. Firstly, it is revealed that the overall degree of ecosystem service coupling coordination is low, and the spatial heterogeneity is characterized by the mode and degree of differential land use. Second, the GeoDetector analysis identifies the main factors influencing the development of ecosystem services coupling, underscoring the augmentation of pairwise interactions. Specifically, the GeoDetector model shows that in a single factor, average temperature per unit area, average rainfall per unit area, topographic fluctuation, and livestock size dominate the coupled development of ecosystem services. In addition, the two-way interactions between all factors have a significantly enhanced effect compared to the dominant role of a single factor. Thirdly, the result of the fsQCA analysis shows that there are 5 effective multivariate conditional configurations, which are caused by natural factors, human factors, and the joint action of natural and human factors. Furthermore, three differentiated configuration paths have been sorted out. These paths emphasize the heterogeneous combination of differences in the six different antecedent variables, enabling the full realization of the coupling development of ecosystem services. The combination of the GeoDetector method and fsQCA method provides a comprehensive and innovative approach to exploring the driving factors of ecosystem service coupling and deciphering the driving mechanisms. Through the effective combination of the two methods, the driving factors and specific action mechanisms that lead to the coupling development of ecosystem services can be deeply analyzed. The results of this paper show that in order to achieve the goal of scientific and fine management of ecosystem services, attention should not only be paid to the dominant role of the single factors but also to the interactive effects of two factors simultaneously. At the same time, the synergistic effects of multiple dimension factors should be considered to promote the coupling of ecosystem services, so as to achieve continuous optimization, and finally achieve the goal of sustainable development of ecosystem.

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张朝辉,李雅杰.区域生态系统服务耦合态势及其驱动力——基于GeoDetector和fsQCA集成分析.生态学报,2025,45(8):3849~3861

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