基于网格尺度的长株潭城市群土地利用碳排放与生态风险空间关系
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湖南工业大学城市与环境学院

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湖南省自然资源科技项目(20230108GH); 湖南省教育科学规划重点课题(XJK23AGD007); 湖南工业大学研究生科研创新项目(CX2428)


Spatial relationships between carbon emissions from land use and ecological risks in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration based on Grid Scale
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Hunan University of Technology

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    摘要:

    厘清基于网格尺度的土地利用碳排放与生态风险的空间分布特征,可为微观尺度生态环境的可持续发展提供新视角。以长株潭城市群为研究对象,基于2012—2022年土地利用、夜间灯光和经济社会等数据,测算和分析城市群碳排放风险与生态风险的时空演变特征,在此基础上运用双变量空间自相关模型探究二者的空间集聚规律。结果表明:(1)2012—2022年土地利用总转化面积为81.322×104hm2,其中,建设用地面积扩张最多,水域面积缩减最多。(2)2012—2022年,净碳排放量减少1101.869×104t;碳排放风险呈减弱态势,空间分布呈多“核心—边缘”圈层结构。(3)2012—2022年生态风险总体呈微弱下降趋势,空间分布格局以洞庭湖和湘江流域为中心向四周递减。(4)研究期间Moran’s I由0.256变化为0.309,碳风险与生态风险之间具有显著的正相关,且正向效应增强。空间上高—低集聚区和高—高集聚区呈减弱态势,低—低集聚区和低—高集聚区呈上升态势,碳风险高(低)值区与生态风险高(低)值区呈现空间同质性,这进一步证明碳风险对生态风险具有正向驱动作用。

    Abstract:

    Clarifying the spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emission and ecological risk of land use at a grid—scale can provide a new perspective for the sustainable development of local ecosystems. Focusing on the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan (CZT) urban agglomeration, this study examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of carbon and ecological risks using land use, night light, and socioeconomic data from 2012 to 2022. Furthermore, this study investigated how these risks were spatially clustered using a bivariate spatial autocorrelation model. The results showed that: (1) From 2012 to 2022, the total area of land use conversion reached 81.322×104hm2. Construction land expanded the most, while water area shrank the most. (2) Net carbon emissions decreased by 1101.869×104t. The risk of carbon emission (CR) has been diminishing, and the spatial distribution exhibits a multi-"core-edge" circle structure. (3) Ecological risk (ER) showed a slight overall downward trend, with the spatial distribution pattern characterized by a gradient of decreasing intensity radiating outward from the center, which is focused around Dongting Lake and the Xiang River basin. (4) Moran's I changed from 0.256 to 0.309 during the study duration. There was a significant positive correlation between carbon and ecological risks, and the positive effect was further strengthened. Spatially, high—low and high—high cluster showed a weakening trend. The low—low and low—high cluster showed an increasing trend. The spatial homogeneity between areas of high (low) carbon risk and areas of high (low) ecological risk was further evidence of the positive driving effect of carbon risk on ecological risk.

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周 航,赵先超.基于网格尺度的长株潭城市群土地利用碳排放与生态风险空间关系.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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