Abstract:The moisture condition is one of the primary influencing factors in grain production. Scientifically assessing the potential moisture conditions of cultivated lands in China's typical grain-producing regions and subsequently implementing "water-oriented land use" for spatial restructuring hold significant practical importance for ensuring national food security and promoting high-quality agricultural development. The Yellow River region in Henan Province serves as both a core area for ecological protection and high-quality development within the Yellow River Basin, and as a typical area in Henan facing resource scarcity, particularly water. The mismatch between long-term water supply and agricultural production scale has led to severe issues of water overexploitation in the area. Against this backdrop, this study focuses on six major grain-producing counties including Yuanyang County, Fengqiu County, and Yanjin County in the Yellow River region of Henan. From the perspective of crop cultivation, using data on land use, crop distribution, MODIS data, and long-term meteorological data, the study constructs regional remote sensing evapotranspiration models and water balance evaluation models. These models accurately reveal local water balance conditions and the effects of water balance under cultivated land use. This approach aims to develop multi-agent spatial optimization models to achieve spatial restructuring of crop planting on cultivated land. The results indicate: (1)The proportion of cultivated land in the six counties along the Yellow River is decreasing, with winter wheat and summer maize planting areas in 2020 accounting for 74.75% and 48.91% of total cultivated land, respectively. Crop rotation of maize and wheat dominates, with scattered distribution of summer maize and smaller field sizes; (2)Temporal and spatial disparities between surface evapotranspiration and effective precipitation result in significant differences in local water balance. The entire region faces water scarcity, with higher water deficits in the northeast and lower deficits in the southwest. Differential irrigation management is recommended based on spatial variations in crop water balance, especially in southwestern Yuanyang County, Hua County, and Puyang County; (3)Integrating considerations of cultivated land water balance and scale aggregation benefits, the study proposes spatial restructuring of crop planting. Results show significant spatial scale effects of land restructuring, with county-level optimization outperforming uniform approaches. Post-restructuring, water deficits for winter wheat and summer maize are alleviated to some extent, enhancing the spatial aggregation and contiguity of fields for improved daily crop irrigation management. Henan's Yellow River region should actively implement the "water-oriented land use" strategy for cultivated land spatial restructuring to alleviate water use pressure and promote sustainable agricultural development.