多模型耦合与GIS支持下的西南高山峡谷区永胜县经果林措施适宜性评价
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北京林业大学水土保持学院

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国家重点研发计划 (2022YFF1302905, 2022YFF1302900)


Suitability evaluation of economic forest measures in Yongsheng County, Southwest Alpine Canyon Area based on multi-model coupling and GIS
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1.School of Soil and Water conversation, Beijing Forestry University,;2.School of Soil and Water conversation, Beijing Forestry University

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    摘要:

    针对水土流失综合治理过程中出现的负向效应情况,评价水土保持措施是选择适宜生态治理策略的重要环节。以西南高山峡谷区永胜县为例,借助GIS支持,发展一种基于证据权模型、Logistic回归模型和证据权—Logistic回归耦合模型的多模型评价模式,评估现有经果林措施的立地适宜性和社会发展可行性。结果表明:(1)通过经果林措施点频数分布雷达图,筛选出12个在不同分级区间内呈现显著波动趋势的评价指标。(2)采用皮尔逊相关性分析、A-C测试和方差膨胀因子(VIF)、容忍度(TOL)方法,验证了12个评价指标的独立性。通过指标结果拟合,坡度和土地利用类型指标的权重较大。(3)采用Sridevi Jadi经验概率法、10折交叉验证法和ROC曲线法检验模型精度,三种模型均能评价经果林措施的适宜性。其中,证据权—Logistic回归耦合模型的结果优于两个单一模型,坡度指标对结果起主导作用(RD=1.39)。(4)永胜县经果林措施整体呈现良好态势,表现出较为明显的高值与低值交错的空间分布格局,适宜性等级与措施占比呈逐级递增趋势。在不适宜—适宜区间的适宜性等级占比变化中,证据权—Logistic回归耦合模型的增幅达到17.83%,显示出更为优异的分区效果。本研究为西南高山峡谷区县域尺度的水土保持措施评估提供了参考,对水土流失治理和生态恢复建设具有指导意义。

    Abstract:

    Abstract: Considering the negative effects of current integrated soil erosion control, assessing soil and water conservation strategies is essential for choosing suitable and effective ecological management measures. Using Yongsheng County, located in the Southwest Alpine Canyon Area, as a case study, and leveraging GIS as support, a multi-model evaluation mode was developed. This model integrated the weight of evidence model, Logistic regression model and evidence—Logistic regression coupling model to identify, evaluate the existing the economic forest measures and in terms of site suitability and feasibility of social development. The findings of the study are as follows: (1) Through the radar chart of frequency distribution of economic forest measures, 12 evaluation indicators exhibiting a significant fluctuating trend across different classification intervals were identified. (2) Pearson"s correlation analysis, A-C test, variance inflation factor (VIF) and tolerance (TOL), the independence of 12 evaluation indicators has been verified. Through the fitting of indicators coefficient results, the weight values of slope and land use type indicators are larger. (3) The Sridevi Jadi empirical probability method, ten-fold cross-validation and ROC curve approach were applied to assess the model"s accuracy, demonstrating that all three models accurately represent the suitability of economic forestry practices. Among them, the result of the evidence—Logistic regression coupling model shows better evaluation ability than the two single models. The slope indicator plays a leading role (RD=1.39). (4) The economic forest measures implemented in Yongsheng County shows a good trend as a whole, the spatial distribution pattern is high in the southwest and low in the northeast, and the suitability is characterized by staggered distribution of high value and low value, the proportion of the economic forest measures and the suitability grade are increasing step by step. The variation of the proportion of suitability grade in the unsuitable—suitable range, evidence—Logistic regression coupling model with a dramatic increase of 17.83% which shows superior partitioning performance. This study provides a reference for the evaluation of soil and water conservation measures at the county scale in the Southwest Alpine Canyon Area, and has guiding significance for the control of soil erosion and the construction of ecological restoration.

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徐晓铮,张会兰,安妮,谷方正.多模型耦合与GIS支持下的西南高山峡谷区永胜县经果林措施适宜性评价.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/10.5846/stxb202404180865

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