The strategic pursuit of global carbon neutrality goals necessitates a profound understanding of land use dynamics and their associated spatial conflicts. The precise measurement and sophisticated simulation of land use spatial conflicts, explicitly guided by the imperative of carbon neutrality, constitute critical methodologies for informing the development of regional territorial spatial patterns that are inherently green and low-carbon. Such approaches are fundamentally vital for advancing the sustainable utilization of land resources and mitigating environmental degradation. This study took the Xiangjiang River Basin in Hunan Province as a case, using land use classification data from 1990 to 2020. It employed a landscape risk assessment method to construct a land use spatial conflict measurement model from three dimensions: land complexity, land vulnerability, and land stability. We analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use spatial conflicts within the basin at the grid scale. By utilizing the emerging Patch Generation Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model and constructing a carbon neutrality index, the study explored the characteristics of land use spatial conflicts and carbon neutrality levels in the Xiangjiang River Basin under different scenarios for 2030. The results showed that: (1) The land use structure in the Xiangjiang River Basin underwent significant changes, with forest land accounting for the largest proportion, and built-up land expanding by 151.37%. The PLUS simulation results will show that, under the natural development scenario, the proportion of built-up land in the Xiangjiang River Basin will increase by 0.41%, while the area changes of different land types under the low-carbon development scenario will be more reasonable. (2) The average land use spatial conflict in the Xiangjiang River Basin from 1990 to 2020 showed a declining-then-rising trend, decreasing from 0.56 to 0.51 and then rebounding to 0.52, remaining overall within a relatively controllable level. (3) In 2030, the average spatial conflict values under the scenarios of natural development, farmland priority, ecological priority, and low-carbon development are 0.506, 0.523, 0.507, and 0.505 respectively, with a noticeable alleviation of conflicts in urban center areas. The high-value areas of carbon neutrality under the low-carbon development scenario account for 21.56%, second only to the ecological priority scenario (21.65%), indicating that this scenario can best alleviate land use conflicts while maintaining carbon balance. The findings of this study furnish crucial empirical support essential for fostering sustainable and coordinated development within the Xiangjiang River Basin. Furthermore, the research carries substantial implications for achieving efficient land resource utilization and safeguarding regional ecological security.