Land space is an important carrier of ecosystem carbon sink function and socio-economic function, and scientific identification of county land space carbon sink conflict under different development scenarios is of great significance for the low-carbon development, utilization of land space, and early warning of carbon sink risk. The study selected 142 districts (counties) in the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone as the study area. From three dimensions of spatial carbon emission pressure, spatial carbon sequestration capacity and spatial instability, the evaluation model of county territorial spatial carbon sink conflict was constructed. Integrating multi-source data including socio-economic data and natural geographical data, we conduct a comprehensive assessment of the carbon emission impacts due to natural processes and human activities in the utilization of national territorial space. We identify the degree of conflict over carbon sinks within the territorial space of the study area and analyze its evolution trends. Furthermore, we predict and simulate four scenarios to explore the evolving trends of future territorial carbon sink conflicts in the study area. The study used the methods of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Servicesand Tradeoffs (InVEST), the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS), the bubble mapping, and the conflict matrix to identify and simulate the degree of spatial carbon sink conflicts and the potential risk areas from 1980 to 2050 in multiple scenarios. The results showed that: (1) The land use types in the study area mainly showed the spatial distribution characteristics of contiguous cultivated land, scattered ecological land and multi-point agglomeration of construction land. The transfer of land use between cultivated land and construction land made up the principal contribution. (2) From 1980 to 2020, the degree of territorial carbon sink conflict in the study area generally presented a trend of "sharp rise-gradual moderation". The study predicted that by 2050, the territorial carbon sink conflict under the carbon emissions reduction scenario (CE) will be the most controllable. (3) According to the conflict matrix division standard, the types of territorial carbon sink conflicts of "three zones and nine regions" in the study area were identified. The carbon sink tolerance safety zones and carbon sink steady-state maintenance zones exhibit spatial distribution characteristics described as "peripheral-style" and "triangular-style," respectively. This paper provides a new research idea for the accurate identification of territorial carbon sink conflicts. It is helpful to expand the research scope of land use conflict theory and man-land relationship theory and provide a reference for other urban agglomerations in China to formulate "region-basin" territorial carbon sink conflict regulation strategies and carbon sink collaborative supervision mechanisms.