碳中和目标背景下中国省域能源碳排放公平性多维评价
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国家社科基金重大项目(22&ZD108);国家自然科学基金项目(72074193);浙江省重点研发计划项目(2022C03154);杭州市哲学社会科学规划"优秀青年人才"专项(2023QNRC17)


The multi-dimensional assessment of China's provincial energy-related carbon emission equity under the goal of carbon neutrality
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    摘要:

    在碳中和目标背景下,厘清省域能源碳排放公平性状况,对于增强省域碳减排增汇的协同性而言具有重要的参考价值。对区域碳排放公平性内涵进行了拓展,从生态空间占用、经济产出、人口规模三个方面构建评价指标,揭示了中国省域能源碳排放公平性时空变化特征,并基于耦合协调度模型分析了能源碳排放公平性的内在耦合协调关系。结果表明:(1)中国省域能源碳排放压力程度呈东高西低的空间格局,且随时间呈递增态势,超过2/3省份增速随时间有所放缓。(2)能源碳排放公平性在生态、经济和社会等维度之间存在权衡关系,而在经济和社会维度之间存在协同关系,其中,能源碳排放生态承载贡献呈由西向东递减态势,能源碳排放经济贡献和人口支撑贡献均呈由南向北递减态势,且省际格局均保持相对稳定。(3)能源碳排放公平性在生态、经济、社会等系统之间的耦合协调程度主要表现为失调状态,失调省份主要位于东部和中部地区,而协调省份协调程度较低,主要位于西部和西南部地区,且能源碳排放公平性耦合协调度随时间整体呈降低态势。中国能源碳排放在生态承载、生产效率、人口支撑等领域均具有潜在的省际协作空间,应基于此分区分类施策以实现优势互补,进而增强碳减排增汇的协同性。

    Abstract:

    In the context of carbon neutrality goal, clarifying the equity of provincial energy-related carbon emissions has important reference value for enhancing the synergy of provincial carbon reduction and sink enhancement. This paper expanded the connotation of regional carbon emission equity, constructed evaluation indicators from three aspects including ecological space occupation, economic output and population size, revealed the spatio-temporal changes in energy-related carbon emission equity in Chinese provinces, and analyzed the inherent coupling coordination relationship of energy-related carbon emission equity based on the coupling coordination degree model. The results showed that: (1) The pressure level of energy-related carbon emissions in Chinese provinces showed a spatial pattern of high in the east and low in the west, and showed an increasing trend over time while the growth rate of more than 2/3 provinces slowed down over time. (2) There was a trade-off relationship between the ecological, economic, and social dimensions of energy-related carbon emission equity, while there was a synergistic relationship between the economic and social dimensions. Among them, the ecological carrying contribution of energy-related carbon emissions decreased from west to east, while both the economic contribution and the population support contribution of energy-related carbon emissions decreased from south to north, and the inter-provincial pattern remained relatively stable. (3) The coupling coordination degree of energy-related carbon emission equity among ecological, economic and social systems was mainly in an uncoordinated state. The uncoordinated provinces were mainly located in the eastern and central regions, while the coordination degree of the coordinated provinces was relatively low, mainly in the western and southwestern regions. Moreover, the overall coupling coordination degree of energy-related carbon emission equity showed a decreasing trend over time. China's energy-related carbon emissions have potential for inter-provincial cooperation in areas such as ecological carrying capacity, production efficiency and population support. Policies should be implemented based on the zoning and classification in accordance with these characteristics to achieve complementary advantages and enhance the synergy of carbon reduction and sink enhancement.

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陈先鹏,余福强,方恺,何思昆.碳中和目标背景下中国省域能源碳排放公平性多维评价.生态学报,2024,44(23):10688~10698

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