基于地理探测器的我国不同林区林火驱动因素对比分析
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国家自然科学基金项目(42371098,41871103)


Comparative analysis of forest fire driving in different forest regions of China based on the geographical detector approach
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    摘要:

    林火是陆地生态系统最为重要的干扰之一,其对森林生态系统生物多样性以及碳循环都产生巨大影响,而且对人类的生命财产构成威胁。不同林区由于自然和社会经济条件的差异,林火发生的主要驱动因素不尽相同,明确林火发生空间格局特征及其驱动因素对于林火预防具有重要意义。以我国东北、南方和西南三个林区为研究区,以2000-2022年MODIS火点产品为主要数据源,利用地理探测器模型,从地形(坡度、高程、地形位置指数)、植被(植被类型、叶面积指数)和社会经济因素(人口密度、居民点密度、距离道路远近、耕地密度、道路密度),分别三个林区的林火空间格局特征及驱动因素进行了对比分析。结果表明:(1)火点在空间上呈聚集分布特征,福建东北部和云南西南部林火聚集明显;(2)不同林区林火发生的驱动因素差异较大。东北林区林火分布格局主要受到植被特征和社会经济因素共同驱动,其中叶面积指数和距离道路的远近影响强度最大;南方和西南林区的林火分布格局主要受到社会经济因素驱动,南方林区距离道路远近是最主要的影响因子,西南林区最重要的影响因子为人口密度和居民点密度;(3)西南林区因子对于林火格局的解释能力最高,东北林区次之,南方林区最差。交互探测结果表明各林区不同驱动因素之间存在交互作用,呈双因子增强和非线性增强。地理探测器模型对于林火驱动因素的研究适用性较好,鉴于不同地区林火发生的驱动机制不同,应该有针对性的制定林火预防和管理政策,为我国林区防火提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    Forest fires are one of the most significant disturbances in terrestrial ecosystems and have a substantial impact on the biodiversity and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems and pose threats to human lives and property. Due to differences in natural and socio-economic conditions, the main driving factors of forest fires vary across different forest regions. Identifying the spatial pattern characteristics and driving factors of forest fires is crucial for their prevention and management. Focuses on three forest regions in China: Northeast, South, and Southwest forest regions, using the MODIS fire product data from 2000 to 2022 as the primary data source of fire frequency and employing the Geodetector model, this study analyzes the spatial pattern characteristics of forest fire by and exploring and comparing the driving factors of fire frequency and distribution in each of these forest regions. The analysis considers terrain (slope, elevation, terrain position index), vegetation (vegetation type, leaf area index), and socio-economic factors population density, settlement density, proximity to roads, farmland density, road density). The results indicate: (1) Fire points show a clustered distribution pattern from the Kernel Density results, with significant clustering observed in northeastern Fujian and southwestern Yunnan provinces. The driving factors of forest fires vary considerably among different forest regions. In the Northeast forest region, the distribution pattern of forest fires is primarily driven by vegetation characteristics and socio-economic factors, with the leaf area index and proximity to roads having the most substantial impact. In the South and Southwest forest regions, socio-economic factors are the main drivers of forest fires. In the South forest region, proximity to roads is the most significant factor, while in the Southwest, population density and settlement density are the most critical factors. The explanatory power of factors for forest fire patterns is highest in the Southwest forest region, followed by the Northeast, and lowest in the South. The interaction detection results reveal that there are interactions between different driving factors in each of the three forest regions, showing both two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. This study concluded that the Geodetector model is well-suited for studying the driving factors of forest fires. Given the differences in the driving mechanisms of forest fires across regions, targeted forest fire prevention and management policies should be formulated to provide a scientific basis for fire prevention in China's forest regions.

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胡雨鑫,王雪梅,陈滢,郭蒙.基于地理探测器的我国不同林区林火驱动因素对比分析.生态学报,2025,45(1):227~238

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