2000—2020年中国城市绿地与人口的标度关系演化
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1.中国科学院城市环境研究所城市环境与健康重点实验室;2.河海大学公共管理学院

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省、部研究计划基金,国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Evolving scaling dynamics between urban green space and population in China from 2000 to 2020
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Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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    摘要:

    作为城市系统的一部分,城市绿地与系统整体间存在着复杂的相互作用。现有城市绿地研究大多只关注绿地本身,较少关注其在更宏观城市体系系统中的规律,对包括规模、质量和分布的绿地多维特征与数量、年龄、性别的社会人口构成之间的潜在非线性时空演化关系鲜有涉足。从复杂系统视角出发,基于城市标度律理论,使用2000—2020年的多源遥感和人口数据面向中国城市绿地与人口间的多维标度关系演化开展了特征计算,进一步剔除规模效应识别了城市绿地效能的时空模式。结果显示:20年间中国城市绿地与人口总体呈现长期稳健的次线性标度关系,体现了规模经济效应。绿地标度因子从0.497稳步上升至0.614,但仍远低于0.85的理论值,反映了城区绿地供应规模的普遍不足,尤其是对于60岁以上的老年人群。值得注意的是,不同绿地质量的城市之间存在着显著的标度特征差异,与城市标度律理论的假设有所悖离,其中,绿地覆盖率最高的城市的规模效应最为显著,而中高绿地生物量城市的标度特征演化逐渐趋同。考虑规模效应影响后,全国整体的城市绿地效能表现出稳步提升的态势,同时呈现显著的聚类分布格局:尤其是从华北平原至长江三角洲区域,绿地效能日益显现出“高-高”聚集模式。研究证实了城市绿地演化过程中普遍存在的次线性规模经济效应,以及不同人群、不同城市之间的规模经济和局地表现的时空差异。在老龄化和城镇化深入的当下,研究能为更好的满足不同规模和人口结构城市的绿地规划建设,提供决策依据,助力实现城市的可持续发展目标。

    Abstract:

    As an integral component of urban systems, Urban Green Spaces (UGS) exhibit complex and multifaceted interactions with the overall system. Current studies mainly focused on UGS characteristics, paying less attention to their broader urban system patterns. Few studies explore the multi-dimensional features of UGS—such as scale, quality, and distribution—and their non-linear spatiotemporal relationships with urban populations, including count, age, and gender. Hence, from the perspective of complex systems, this study employs urban scaling theory to analyze the multi-dimensional scaling relationship evolution between UGS and population in Chinese cities using multi-source remote sensing and population data from 2000 to 2020. The characteristic calculations were performed, and further analysis was conducted to remove scale effects and identify the spatiotemporal patterns of UGS performance. Our results indicate that over the past 20 years, the relationship between UGS and population in Chinese cities has exhibited a consistently robust sub-linear scaling relationship, reflecting the economies of scale. The green space scaling exponent steadily increased from 0.497 to 0.614, yet it remains significantly below the theoretical value of 0.85, indicating a general insufficiency in the supply of UGS, particularly for the elderly population aged 60 and above. Notably, there are significant differences in scaling characteristics among cities with varying quality of green spaces, which deviate from the assumptions of urban scaling theory. The cities with the highest green space coverage exhibit the most pronounced economies of scale, whereas the scaling characteristics of cities with medium to high green biomass gradually converge. After accounting for the influence of scale effects, the overall performance of UGS in China has shown a steady upward trend, accompanied by a significant clustering distribution pattern. Specifically, the performance of green spaces increasingly exhibits a "high-high" clustering mode, particularly in the region extending from the North China Plain to the Yangtze River Delta. Our research confirms the widespread presence of sub-linear economies of scale in the evolution of UGS, as well as the spatiotemporal variations in scale economies and local performance among different populations and cities. In the context of deepening aging and urbanization, this study provides a decision-making basis for better meeting the needs of green space planning and construction in cities of varying scales and population structures, thereby supporting the achievement of sustainable urban development goals.

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徐智邦,黄毅熠,雷玮倩,蓝婷,王豪伟,聂镭.2000—2020年中国城市绿地与人口的标度关系演化.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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