Abstract:Developing forestry carbon sequestration and enhancing the sustainable management of plantations are essential strategies for China to achieve its "carbon neutrality" objectives. Particularly, the optimal rotation age for forests is significantly influenced by price volatility and uncertainty, which are critical factors in forest managers' decision-making processes. Using an extended Faustmann-Hartman model, this study developed an optimal harvesting decision-making framework that includes multiple carbon pools, such as biomass, dead organic matter, wood forest products, and biomass energy. We have conducted an analysis on the influence of price stochasticity on the optimal rotation periods for poplar plantations in Northern Jiangsu Province and evaluated the potential revenue for forest managers under the multi-carbon pool scenario. The results show that: (1) Under the baseline scenario, the optimal rotation periods for poplar plantations in Northern Jiangsu, when considering revenues from timber, biomass, dead organic matter, wood forest products, and biomass energy carbon pool in succession, are consistently found to be between 8 to 9 years. This suggests a relatively stable optimal rotation period despite the inclusion of various carbon pools in the revenue calculations; (2) Under the current carbon price level in China, incorporating revenue from multiple carbon pools successively leads to a continuous increase in the expected land value. This indicates that a comprehensive consideration of carbon sink benefits during forestry operations could significantly enhance the revenue of poplar forest managers in Northern Jiangsu by approximately 191%. This substantial increase underscores the economic potential of integrating carbon sequestration into forest management practices; (3) Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that discount rates and the long-term equilibrium prices of timber and carbon sinks are pivotal factors in shaping forest management decisions. The impact of price fluctuations for both timber and carbon sinks, while important, is found to be relatively minor in comparison. This suggests that forest managers should focus on long-term strategies that consider the stability and growth of timber and carbon markets. Based on these findings, the study proposes several sustainable management strategies for poplar plantations in northern Jiangsu. These including strengthening the monitoring and evaluation of carbon sequestration capacity in forestry, fostering stable increases in timber prices, promoting an effective connection between carbon quotas and China Certified Emission Reduction markets, balancing the production capacity of timber and carbon sequestration, and emphasizing the prevention of multiple risks in long-term management. By implementing these strategies, forest managers can enhance the sustainability and profitability of their operations, contributing to the broader goal of carbon neutrality in China.