高标准农田建设对农田减灾的影响及作用机制
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国家自然科学基金项目(72063012);江西省社会科学基金项目(23YJ12);教育部人文社科项目(20YJC790103)


Influence and mechanism of high standard farmland construction on farmland disaster reduction
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    摘要:

    农田建设质量和农田灾害风险抵御能力关系国家粮食安全战略问题,厘清高标准农田建设对农田减灾的影响及作用机制,对促进高标准农田建设和农业减灾稳产具有重要参考价值。基于中国31个省、市、自治区的面板数据,运用连续型双重差分法分析高标准农田建设对农田减灾的影响及作用机制。结果发现:(1)高标准农田建设能够显著降低农业自然灾害的影响,特别在降低农业受灾率、成灾率、绝收率和脆弱度方面表现尤为突出,经过改变政策干预时点、替换核心解释变量、考虑序列自相关问题、控制变量滞后一期等一系列稳健性检验后,发现这种作用依然存在。(2)相比水灾而言,高标准农田建设对旱灾的缓解作用要更大;由于非粮食主产区农业生产条件相对较差,高标准农田建设对其减灾的促进作用更为明显;财政能力较强的东部地区会有更多的建设配套资金和扶持政策,也就使得高标准农田建设对降低东部地区农业自然灾害影响的作用会更大。(3)机制检验发现,高标准基本农田建设是通过生态调节、综合防治和生产条件改善这三个机制对农业自然灾害产生影响,其中介效应大小分别为24.32%、26.47%和13.65%。

    Abstract:

    The quality of farmland construction and the ability to resist farmland disaster risks are related to the national food security strategy. Clarifying the impact and mechanisms of high-standard farmland construction on disaster reduction is of great significance for promoting high-standard farmland construction and agricultural disaster reduction and stable production. Based on panel data from 31 provinces (cities) in China, the study uses the continuous double difference method to analyze the impact and mechanisms of high-standard farmland construction on disaster reduction. The results show that: (1) High-standard farmland construction can significantly reduce the impact of natural agricultural disasters, particularly in reducing the affected rate, disaster rate, total crop failure rate, and vulnerability. According to the estimated coefficients, high-standard farmland construction can reduce the affected rate, disaster rate, total crop failure rate, and disaster vulnerability by 0.263, 0.148, 0.166, and 0.468 units, respectively. These results remain consistent even after a series of robustness tests, including changing the policy intervention time, replacing core explanatory variables, considering serial correlation issues, lagging control variables by one period, and expanding the data sample. (2) From the perspective of the heterogeneity of natural disaster types, high-standard farmland construction has a greater mitigating effect on droughts compared to floods. This is mainly due to the improvement of water resource utilization efficiency and the promotion of water-saving irrigation technology. From the perspective of the heterogeneity of agricultural functional areas, due to the weaker agricultural production conditions in non-grain main producing areas, their ability to resist natural disasters is also weaker, making the disaster reduction promotion effect of high-standard farmland construction more significant for them. From the perspective of the heterogeneity of regional economic development levels, the financially stronger eastern regions have more construction funds and supportive policies, making the effect of high-standard farmland construction on reducing the impact of agricultural natural disasters in the eastern regions more significant. (3) Mechanism testing shows that high-standard basic farmland construction affects agricultural natural disasters through three mechanisms: ecological regulation, comprehensive prevention, and improvement of production conditions, with mediating effects of 24.32%, 26.47%, and 13.65%, respectively. The study suggests continuing to strengthen the construction of high-standard agriculture in various regions, carrying out high-standard farmland construction according to local conditions based on regional climate characteristics and water and soil conditions, and reinforcing the supporting measures for high-standard farmland construction. This will further consolidate the promotion of disaster reduction by high-standard farmland construction. The research provides a reference for improving high-standard farmland construction and enhancing farmland disaster reduction capabilities.

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彭继权,刘毅南,陈莉莉.高标准农田建设对农田减灾的影响及作用机制.生态学报,2024,44(17):7589~7603

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