Ecological restoration under water constraints is one of the key tasks to maintain ecosystem health. This study is based on the Penman-Monteith-Leuning (PML) model and the "Vitality-Organization-Resilience-Ecosystem Services" framework to evaluate and predict the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecosystem health in the Chahannaoer basin within the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region watershed. It examines five restoration scenarios by restorations of both land use and vegetation,and explore potential for improving the health of township-scale ecosystems under SSP126 and SSP545 scenarios for different human activity intensity. The results showed that: (1) Land use restoration with minimal human interference exerts negligible impact on organizational force,whereas vegetation restoration significantly bolsters vitality and ecosystem services. (2) Vegetation restoration has a greater positive impact on ecosystem health. The more intense human activities,the greater the negative impact on ecosystem health. The land use restoration-vegetation is non-restoration-SSP126 scenario and land use restoration-vegetation non-restoration-SSP545 scenario increases the patch area of good ecosystem health by 3km² and 2km² respectively. (3) Land use non-restoration-vegetation restoration scenario has a greater effect on promoting ecosystem health. Townships with high potential for improving ecosystem health are mainly located in the west and south of the study area,while the north and east exhibit lower potential for such improvement. The evaluation results of ecosystem health potential based on "water-based" can provide reference for future ecological restoration site selection in the study area.