青藏高原1951—2011年生长季低温事件时空分异及影响因素
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安徽省高等学校科学研究项目(2023AH040020);国家自然科学基金项目(41961008);安徽省研究生教育质量工程项目(2023dshwyx011);安徽师范大学大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202310370047)


Spatiotemporal variation and its environmental drivers of freezing events during the growing season on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1951 to 2011
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    摘要:

    气候变暖导致青藏高原植物生长期的延长,这可能增加了生长季早期和晚期植物暴露在低温冻害下的风险。然而,有关青藏高原生长季低温事件的时空分异及其影响因素还缺乏系统的认识。根据青藏高原109个气象站1951-2011年逐日气温数据定义了气候学上的植物生长季,使用Rstudio软件统计各站点逐年的生长季低温事件的频率和强度,分析了生长季低温事件频率和强度的时空变化及其主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)在1951-2011年期间,青藏高原约65%的站点生长季及生长季不同时期的低温事件频率和强度出现同步降低,但高原东部和雅鲁藏布江河谷一带站点却呈轻微增加趋势。(2)不同年代生长季低温事件的年内分布特征发生了系统性变化:1951-1990年代生长季低温事件分布概率峰值的出现日期相对稳定,但1991-2011年代生长季早期和晚期低温事件概率峰值的出现日期却分别提前11-29d和推迟6-29d,并且这种不同年代之间的时间位移现象在生长季低温事件频率减少的站点中尤为突出。(3)生长季开始时间和生长季温度的变化趋势是影响生长季低温事件频率变化的主要环境因子,当生长季开始日期的提前幅度超过4.37d/10a或生长季增温幅度小于0.05℃/10a时,生长季低温事件的频率将会增加;但是,各环境因子的变化趋势对生长季低温事件强度变化的影响则较小。研究结果揭示了气候变暖背景下青藏高原生长季低温事件的时空分异特征及其影响因素,为气候变化下青藏高原植被生态系统的管理和保护提供了重要科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are highly fragile. Climate warming has lengthened the plant growth period on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which may increase the risk of freezing exposure in the early and late growing seasons. Knowledge on the spatiotemporal variations of freezing events during the growing season will contribute to a deeper understanding of the response and adaptation mechanisms of plant growth to climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, to date, there is still a lack of systematic understanding of the spatial and temporal differentiation of growing-season freezing events and its environmental drivers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this study, we defined the climatological growing season based on the daily temperature data of 109 weather stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1951 to 2011. Rstudio was used to analyze the frequency and intensity of growing-season freezing events at each station year by year. The main results were as follow: (1) During 1951-2011, the frequency and intensity of freezing events during the whole and different phases of growing season decreased simultaneously at ca. 65% stations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, but climate stations in the eastern part of the plateau and along the Brahmaputra Valley showed a slight increasing trend. (2) The intra-annual distribution of growing-season freezing events had changed systematically among different decades. The dates of the peak distribution probability of growing-season freezing events from 1951 to 1990 were relatively stable. From 1991 to 2011, however, the dates of the peak probability of early- and late-season freezing events were 11-29 days earlier and 6-29 days later respectively, and such time shifts were particularly evident at sites where the frequency of growing-season freezing events decreased. (3) The long-term trends of the onset of the growing season and the growing-season temperature were the main environmental factors that affected the frequency of growing-season freezing events. When the advance of the onset of the growing season exceeded 4.37d/10a or the increase of growing-season temperature was less than 0.05℃/10a, the frequency of growing-season freezing events would increase. However, the long-term trends of various environmental factors had a minor impact on the changes in the intensity of growing-season freezing events. The results revealed the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and its environmental drivers of growing-season freezing events on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate warming, which can provide key scientific basis for the management and protection of vegetation ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under climate change.

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张亦赟,刘新圣,符迪娜,方凤满,吴东磊,骆菲菲.青藏高原1951—2011年生长季低温事件时空分异及影响因素.生态学报,2024,44(20):9029~9038

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