Land use in developing countries often faces a conflict between ecological protection and agricultural production. Boosting agricultural productivity could potentially achieve a win-win situation for both ecological protection and agricultural production, but it remains a subject of debate in both theory and practice. This study addresses the research question of whether the increase in agricultural productivity mitigates or exacerbates deforestation. Based on data from 1,200 counties in China from 2001 to 2015, the study employs the Solow residual and the stochastic frontier analysis methods to measure county-level agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) as an indicator of agricultural productivity. By applying panel data fixed-effects methods, this study estimates the impact of agricultural productivity on forest cover. The results indicate that: ①The sample counties generally show a simultaneous increase in both agricultural productivity and forest cover. ②The rise in agricultural productivity has a certain negative impact on forest cover, with a 1% increase in agricultural TFP leading to a 0.012% decrease in forest cover. It is estimated that the increase in agricultural productivity from 2001 to 2015 resulted in a 0.14% to 0.25% decline in forest cover. However, compared to the overall level and trend of forest cover in China during the same period, this negative impact is quite limited. ③Increased agricultural TFP has driven structural changes within the agricultural sector, increasing the output of livestock and fisheries, while has intensified the land use for crop production. These changes have mitigated the negative effect of agricultural development on forest cover. Thus, the sample counties have achieved rapid agricultural productivity growth at a small cost of forest protection, and have attained simultaneous development in both forest protection and agricultural production with the strong support of ecological protection projects.