基于集成学习算法和Optuna调优的江西省森林碳储量遥感估测
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江西省林业局科技创新专项([202133]);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(BFUKF202404,PTYX202407)


Remote sensing estimation of forest carbon storage in Jiangxi Province based on ensemble learning algorithm and Optuna tuning
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Provincial and ministerial research plan foundation;Special Funds for Basic Scientific Research Operation Expenses of Central Universities

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    摘要:

    了解森林碳储量对于完整、准确地量化碳排放及气候变化背景下的环境监测至关重要,借助遥感数据源是估算区域尺度碳储量的有效方法。以江西省为研究区,基于第七次国家森林资源连续清查样地数据与Landsat-5 TM遥感数据,通过GEE平台对影像进行处理,将递归特征消除(RFE)、Boruta两种特征选择方法与支持向量机(SVR),包括随机森林(RF)、极端梯度提升(XGBoost)和堆叠集成(Stacking)在内的三种集成学习算法相结合,分析不同模型的估测精度。此外,运用Optuna超参数优化框架来确定各模型的超参数。根据最优估测模型来反演江西省森林碳储量并绘制空间分布图,选用地理探测器对碳储量的空间分布格局进行驱动力分析。结果表明:(1)根据特征重要性排名,RFE筛选出30个变量,Boruta筛选出11个变量,合适的特征子集与回归算法相结合能显著提升估测的准确性。(2)基于Optuna对各模型的超参数进行迭代调优,发现不同特征子集与机器学习算法相结合,超参数取值和重要性在模型中差异较大。其中RFE筛选的最优特征子集与Stacking算法结合进行回归拟合时获得了最好的估测效果(R2=0.527,RMSE=15.85Mg/hm2,MAE=12.31Mg/hm2),该模型有效利用训练数据,结合多种算法的优点以减少偏差,显著改善森林碳密度高值低估和低值高估的问题。(3)最优估测模型反演得到江西省2006年的森林碳密度平均值为33.356Mg/hm2(2.585-88.943Mg/hm2),森林碳储量总量为321.507Tg。(4)自然环境因子中海拔和坡度是影响碳储量空间分布格局的主要驱动因子;所有因子在交互作用下呈非线性增强和双因子增强,其空间分布格局是自然因素和人为因素协同作用的结果。

    Abstract:

    Understanding forest carbon storage has been crucial for the complete and accurate quantification of carbon emissions and environmental monitoring in the context of climate change. The use of remote sensing data sources has proven to be an effective method for estimating carbon reserves at the regional scale. Taked Jiangxi Province as the research area, using the seventh National Forest Continuous Inventory (NFCI) data along with Landsat-5 TM remote sensing data. Image processing steps were performed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Forest carbon storage was estimated by employing two feature selection methods(recursive feature elimination (RFE) and Boruta), combined with support vector regression (SVR) and three ensemble learning algorithms, including random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and stacking integration (Stacking), to comparatively analyze the estimation accuracies of different models in detail. In addition, the Optuna hyperparameter optimization framework was used to determine the hyperparameters of each model. Inverted the forest carbon storage in Jiangxi Province based on the optimal estimation model and drew a spatial distribution map. The driving forces of carbon stocks' spatial distribution patterns were analyzed using geographic detectors. The results show that: (1) According to the feature importance ranking, RFE screened out 30 variables and Boruta screened out 11 variables. The combination of appropriate feature subsets and regression algorithms can significantly improve the accuracy of estimation. (2) Optuna-based iteratively adjusted the hyperparameters of each model. It was found that when different subsets of features were combined with machine learning algorithms, there was a significant disparity in the importance and values of hyperparameters within the model. The optimal feature subset was screened using RFE, which achieved the best predictive performance when utilized in regression simulations combined with Stacking models (R2=0.527, RMSE=15.85Mg/hm2, MAE=12.31Mg/hm2). The model effectively utilized the training data and combined the advantages of multiple algorithms to reduce bias, which significantly improved the problems of underestimation of high carbon density values and overestimation of low carbon density values. (3) The optimal estimation model was inverted to obtain the average forest carbon density in Jiangxi Province in 2006 was 33.356Mg/hm2 (2.585-88.943Mg/hm2), and the total forest carbon stock was 321.507Tg. (4) Among the natural environment factors, elevation and slope were the main driving factors influencing the spatial distribution pattern of carbon stocks. All factors showed nonlinear enhancement and two-factor enhancement under interaction. The spatial distribution pattern of carbon storage was the result of the synergistic effect of natural and anthropogenic factors.

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王可月,王轶夫,陈馨,郑峻鹏,李杰,孙玉军.基于集成学习算法和Optuna调优的江西省森林碳储量遥感估测.生态学报,2025,45(2):685~700

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