中国主要粮食作物种植结构优化下稳粮减排及成本效益分析
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国家自然科学基金项目(72221002,72373139,72304192)


Crop structure optimizing for stabilizing food and reducing emissions and cost benefit analysis in China
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National natural science foundation project

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    摘要:

    优化粮食作物的种植结构是保障粮食安全与减少农业源温室气体排放的有效手段。基于中国各省农业生产投入、管理经营与农产品成本收益汇编数据,采用排放因子、多目标优化及成本收益分析方法,核算了2021年中国及各省份粮食生产温室气体排放状况并揭示其空间分布特征及贡献份额,优化了其种植结构和布局,开展了主要作物的生产成本和经济效益分析。研究发现:(1) 2021年,中国粮食生产温室气体排放总量达4.33×108tCO2eq,CH4和N2O是主要贡献者,排放量占比分别为40.12%和32.56%;水稻种植是第一大排放源,其排放温室气体2.09×108tCO2eq,玉米是温室气体排放量最大的旱地作物。(2) 中国粮食作物生产温室气体排放在空间上呈现东高西低、南多北少的格局,东北平原、长江中下游平原和珠江三角洲等水稻主产区是高排放区。(3) 优化作物种植结构后,粮食种植面积相对于2021年下降6.78%,灌溉用水、化肥用量分别下降了4.82%和4.87%;作物产量增加1.1%,其中水稻、小麦产量分别减少0.62%、0.55%,玉米则增产1.48%;温室气体排放总量下降5.09%,其中CO2、CH4和N2O排放分别减少5.98%、5.6%和3.7%。(4) 粮食作物结构种植调整有助于提升成本收益,优化后粮食作物总收益可增加305.74亿元,七种粮食作物除蔬菜种植成本有所增加外,其他作物均不同程度降低。未来,受气候变化、市场竞争和高种植成本等因素影响,中国粮食安全保障和温室气体减排压力将进一步加剧,优化种植结构、推动农业全产业链升级与降低生产资料消耗是实现农业稳粮减排的有效途径。

    Abstract:

    Optimizing the planting structure of grain crops is an effective means to ensure food security and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. Based on the compilation data of agricultural input,management,and output cost-benefit data from various provinces in China,this article uses emission factors,multi-objective optimization,and cost-benefit analysis methods to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions from grain production in China and its provinces in 2021,reveal their spatial distribution characteristics and contribution share,optimize their planting structure and layout,and carry out production cost and economic benefits analysis of major crops. The research findings are as follows: (1) In 2021,China's grain production resulted in total greenhouse emissions of 4.33 × 108 tons CO2 equivalent. CH4 and N2O are the main contributors,accounting for 40.12% and 32.56% of the total emissions,rice cultivation is the largest emitter,with an emission of 2.09×108 tons of CO2 equivalent,while corn is the largest emitter among dryland crops. (2) Greenhouse gas emissions from grain production exhibit a spatial distribution where emissions are higher in the eastern regions and lower in the western regions,with greater emissions in the southern areas compared to the northern areas. The rice-producing regions such as the Northeast Plain,the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Plain,and the Pearl River Delta are high-emission areas. (3) Following the optimization of crop planting structures,there was a 6.78% reduction in grain planting areas compared to 2021,accompanied by 4.82% and 4.87% reductions in irrigation water and fertilizer usage,respectively. The yield increased by 1.1%,with rice and wheat production decreasing by 0.62% and 0.55%,respectively,while corn production increased by 1.48%. Total greenhouse gas emissions decreased by 5.09%,with CO2,CH4,and N2O emissions decreasing by 5.98%,5.6%,and 3.7%,respectively. (4) Adjusting the planting structure of grain crops can help improve cost-benefit relationships and optimize total grain crop revenue by increasing it by 305.74 billion yuan. Except for vegetable cultivation costs,which increased to some extent,all other crops decreased in cost to varying degrees. In the future,under the influence of factors such as climate change,market competition,and high production costs,the pressure on China's food security and greenhouse gas reduction will further intensify. Optimizing planting structures,strengthening agricultural industry chain cooperation,and reducing production material consumption are effective ways to achieve stable grain production and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

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黄新东,张新艳,张帆.中国主要粮食作物种植结构优化下稳粮减排及成本效益分析.生态学报,2025,45(6):2938~2951

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