成渝地区农田生产力对骤旱的抵抗性与恢复性
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国家自然科学基金(42201124);重庆市自然科学基金创新发展联合基金项目(CSTB2024NSCQ-LZX0064);中国博士后科学基金(2023M740433);重庆市自然科学基金(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0523)


The resistance and resilience of farmland productivity to flash drought in the Chengdu-Chongqing area
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The National Natural Science Foundation of China

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    摘要:

    在全球变暖的影响下,中国骤旱事件逐渐增加,西南地区尤为突出。成渝地区由骤旱事件引起的农田绝收问题逐渐加剧。然而,国内外关于农田生产力对骤旱的抵抗性与恢复性研究较为匮乏。因此,研究农田对骤旱的抵抗性与恢复性对保护农田具有重要意义。基于此,使用GPP数据和中国土壤水分数据集以及农田类型数据等,采用游程理论和地理加权回归等方法,分析了成渝地区农田对骤旱的抵抗性与恢复性,量化了农田生产力对骤旱的脆弱性。研究结果表明:(1)在2006和2022骤旱年中,成渝地区西北部和东南部骤旱较为严峻,其中德阳市、绵阳市、成都市等地区的骤旱严重度、骤旱持续时间均为高值,而2022年西部区域骤旱次数比2006年明显减少;(2)2022年与2006年相比,大部分农田恢复性提高,但抵抗性下降,其中水稻田、玉米田等抵抗性变化范围从5-6下降到了3-4,恢复性变化范围则由1-2上升至2-3;(3)2022年成渝地区北部农田比2006年抵抗时间增加,但成渝地区大部分农田恢复时间相较于2006年急剧下降;(4)2022年成渝地区西北部农田相较于2006年面对骤旱更加脆弱,且在2022骤旱年中,成渝地区多季作物田脆弱性高于组成轮作的单季作物田脆弱性。有助于深入了解农田对骤旱的抵抗性和恢复性,以及在农田灌溉制度和种植制度条件下骤旱对农田脆弱性的影响机制,对成渝地区农业生产和抗旱减灾提供科学理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Under the influence of global warming, flash drought events in China are gradually increasing, with the southwest region being particularly affected. The Chengdu-Chongqing area is experiencing increasing crop failures as a result of these flash droughts. However, understanding the resistance and recovery of farmland productivity to flash droughts is limited both domestically and internationally. Therefore, investigating the resistance and recovery mechanisms of farmland to flash droughts is of significant importance for protecting agricultural resources. The GPP data, Chinese soil moisture dataset, and farmland type data were used in the study. The fundamental characteristics of flash drought in the Chengdu-Chongqing area in 2006 and 2022 were investigated by using run length theory. Then, the study assessed the resistance and recovery capacities of farmland to flash droughts and quantified the vulnerability of farmland productivity in the Chengdu-Chongqing area. The main results reveal that the northwest and southeast parts of the Chengdu-Chongqing area experienced more severe flash droughts in the flash drought years of 2006 and 2022. Notably, areas such as De yang, Mian yang, and Chengdu exhibited high severity, and duration of flash droughts, while the number of flash droughts in the western region significantly decreased in 2022 compared to 2006. Compared to 2006, most farmland in 2022 has shown improved resilience but decreased resistance. Specifically, paddy fields, corn fields, and other single-season, double-season, and three-season crops have seen their resistance levels decrease from 5-6 to 3-4. Meanwhile, the range of resilience change has increased from 1-2 to 2-3. The range of resilience change has increased from 1-2 to 2-3, while the range of resistance change has decreased from 4-6 to 2-4. In 2022, the resistance time of farmland in the northern part of the Chengdu-Chongqing area increased compared to 2006, while the recovery time of most farmland in the Chengdu-Chongqing area sharply decreased. In 2022, farmland in the northwest of the Chengdu-Chongqing area became more vulnerable to flash droughts compared to 2006. During the flash drought year of 2022, multi-season crop fields in the Chengdu-Chongqing area exhibited higher vulnerability than single-season crop fields used in rotation. When facing flash droughts, the vulnerability of irrigated farmland was lower than that of rainfed farmland. However, the average vulnerability of some rainfed single-season farmlands, such as corn fields and wheat fields, was lower than that of irrigated farmland. This study enhances the understanding of farmland resistance and resilience to flash droughts and elucidates the impact mechanisms of flash droughts on farmland vulnerability under various irrigation and planting systems. It offers a scientific theoretical basis for agricultural production, drought resistance, and disaster reduction in the Chengdu-Chongqing area.

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李奇锦,姜亮亮,刘文利,吴光明,谢崇丹.成渝地区农田生产力对骤旱的抵抗性与恢复性.生态学报,2025,45(1):351~366

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