The spatial carbon sink conflict represents a specific facet of spatial ecological conflicts, and scientifically evaluating it constitutes a valid approach to identify regional carbon balance and provide strong support for attaining the “dual carbon” goal. This study focuses on 199 counties within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) city cluster. An evaluation model is constructed for measuring the intensity of spatial carbon sink conflict employing an ecological risk model that considers the external pressure, exposure degree and stability. Additionally, spatial autocorrelation is adopted to analyze the heterogeneity of the spatial layout. The results show that: ① The distribution of spatial carbon sink conflict in the study area exhibited an overall imbalance, which has further exacerbated the imbalance in the allocation of carbon sources and sinks; ② The index of spatial carbon sink conflict is concentered around the central capital and diminishes progressively as one moves outward in concentric circles, demonstrating a distribution pattern with higher values in the central east and lower values in the north, west, and south; ③ The spatial carbon sink conflict in the BTH city cluster is influenced by various factors including ecological resources, land use development intensity, and spillover of neighborhood spatial functions, demonstrating significantly spatial clustering characteristics. The cold spots are concentrated in the north and south of the area that plays an important ecological conservation function, while the hot spots are concentrated in the central and eastern regions of key economic development areas; ④ In order to effectively manage the carbon sink conflict in rapidly urbanized regions of the BTH, it is essential to prioritize urban units that are on the verge of being out of control as core areas of control. This should be accompanied by the implementation of management zoning and cross-regional linkage monitoring. And it is necessary to establish a cross-regional linkage carbon emission reduction mechanism from a global perspective. The “dual carbon” goal should be reasonably decomposed into different administrative units, and the sustainable low-carbon development and utilization of regional territorial space should be promoted in an integrated way. The results of this study can serve as a realistic reference for the mitigation of territorial spatial carbon sink conflict and the synergistic management of carbon balances in rapidly urbanizing areas.