中国城市紧凑度对碳排放效率的空间溢出效应——基于夜间灯光数据研究
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国家自然科学基金重大项目(42293270);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41931293);国家自然科学基金项目(42201226);河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划资助(24HASTIT049)


Spatial spillover effects of urban compactness on carbon emission efficiency in China: a study based on nighttime lighting data
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    摘要:

    在碳中和、碳达峰时代背景下,提高城市碳排放效率对于推进低碳城市建设与发展具有重要实践意义。城市紧凑度因其形态、结构、功能维度与碳排放效率密切相关,深入论证城市紧凑度能否提高碳排放效率并探究其空间溢出特征具有重要理论价值。基于中国277个地级市面板数据,利用赫芬达尔指数和超效率SBM模型,分别测算了地级市的城市紧凑度和碳排放效率,分析了二者空间演变趋势和关联特征,以及城市紧凑度对碳排放效率的空间溢出效应。结果表明:①各城市的城市紧凑度呈现多中心结构格局,总体表现为南高北低的分异特征,极高值区位于我国主要城市群的核心城市。②根据动态SDM模型估计,城市紧凑度在地理距离相近的地区存在显著正向的空间溢出、时间惯性和时空季风效应,总体碳排放效率平稳提升,城市紧凑度的调节会导致跨地区碳排放效率的上下波动。③效应分解结果表明,多中心结构显著提高了城市碳排放效率,但对周边城市产生负空间溢出效应,降低了周边城市碳排放效率。在空间异质性下,东部83个城市存在着“过度多中心化”,使得城市紧凑度对当地碳排放效率的影响“由促转抑”。④建议政策制定要注重有序建立多中心的空间结构,进一步提高能源效益;推动市场一体化,消除市场壁垒以促进要素自由流动;加强交通基础设施建设,降低城际交通成本,促进多中心空间结构对能源效率发挥更积极的作用。

    Abstract:

    In the context of the era of carbon neutralisation and carbon peaking,improving urban carbon emission efficiency significantly contributes to the realization and development of low-carbon city construction.Urban compactness is closely related to carbon emission efficiency due to its ‘form,structure and function’,and it is important to demonstrate whether urban compactness can improve carbon emission efficiency and explore its spatial spillover characteristics. Based on the panel data of 279 prefecture-level cities in China,the Herfindahl index and the super-efficiency SBM model are used to measure the urban compactness and carbon emission efficiency of the prefecture-level cities to explore the spatial evolution trend and correlation characteristics of the two,and apply the dynamic spatial Durbin model to analyse the spatial spillover effect of urban compactness on carbon emission efficiency. The results show that: ① The urban compactness in each city tends to change in the polycentric structure,with a spatial pattern that is typically "high in the south and low in the north". The areas with extremely high values are predominantly found in the core cities of major urban agglomerations in China. Carbon emission efficiency level generally exhibits a steady upward trend,with the northern segment of the high-value urban agglomeration area progressively moving southward. ② According to the estimation results of the dynamic SDM model under the spatio-temporal fixed effect,there are significant positive spatial spillover,temporal inertia and spatio-temporal monsoon effects of urban compactness in geographically close areas. This is demonstrated by the fact that the regulation of urban compactness leads to upward and downward fluctuations in the efficiency of carbon emissions across regions.③ The decomposition of impact effects indicates that while a polycentric structure significantly enhances a city's carbon emission efficiency,it can negatively affect neighboring cities through spatial spillover,diminishing their carbon emission efficiency. The phenomenon of ‘excessive polycentricity’ in 83 cities in the East under spatial heterogeneity makes the impact of urban compactness on local carbon emission efficiency ‘from facilitating to suppressing’.④ In terms of policy formulation,it is recommended that a multi-centre spatial structure be established in a gradual and orderly manner to further improve energy efficiency; that market integration be further promoted,market barriers be eliminated and the free flow of factors be facilitated; and that transport infrastructure be strengthened and intercity transport costs be reduced to promote a more positive role of the multi-centre spatial structure in terms of energy efficiency.

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张诗涵,王伟,刘彦随,陈准.中国城市紧凑度对碳排放效率的空间溢出效应——基于夜间灯光数据研究.生态学报,2024,44(24):11004~11019

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