The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is a rare and endangered animal endemic to China. It is also a flagship species for global biodiversity conservation. The wild giant panda population has increased and the threatened level has dropped from endangered (EN) to vulnerable (VU) through long-term ecological conservation and restoration efforts. However, habitat fragmentation and population isolation still pose challenges to the survival of the wild giant pandas. To further understand the dynamics of the number and distribution of the panda population and support conservation and restoration measures, this study established a population dynamics model incorporating panda habitat suitability and individual dispersion. Taking Pingwu County, Sichuan Province, as a case study, we simulated the number and distribution of wild pandas during the period of the third national survey (1999-2003) to the fourth national survey (2011-2013) on giant panda. The results showed that suitable and moderately suitable habitats for giant pandas are mainly distributed in the north and west of Pingwu County, accounting for 41% of the county's area. Altitude, distribution of staple bamboos, precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variations), and distance from roads were the main factors affecting habitat suitability for giant pandas, and areas with moderately high altitude, distribution of staple bamboos, low precipitation seasonality (coefficient of variations), and distance from roads had higher habitat suitability for giant pandas. Based on the number and distribution of pandas at the time of the third national survey on giant panda, the simulation produced an average of 309 panda individuals at the time of the fourth survey national survey on giant panda, with an error rate of 7.76% compared to the actual survey results. The Gini coefficient of the panda population density between the simulation and national survey on giant panda is 0.06, and the average Distribution Matching Index is 0.95, indicating a high consistency of the distribution between the simulation and national survey on giant panda. Density of panda trails in the areas between Wanglang and Xiaohegou, and between Wanglang and Yujiashan, is relatively high, indicating the areas are significant for panda dispersion. While density of panda trails in the areas between Xiaohegou and Yujiashan is relatively low, indicating the presence of dispersion barriers. To enhance the overall conservation of panda populations and habitats and promote the high-quality construction of Giant Panda National Park, it is recommended to take measures such as strengthening management and protection, constructing ecological corridors, and formulating management regulations of local communities.