With the release of the Special Action Plan for the Control of Spartina alterniflora (2022-2025) in 2022, the cleanup work of Spartina alterniflora in the Yellow River Delta wetland has been carried out rapidly. This study analyzed the ecological benefits and future potential risks of Spartina alterniflora clearing by comparing the wetland use and landscape pattern indices of the Yellow River Delta wetland under the simulated natural development scenario and the actual scenarios post large-scale artificial clearing of Spartina alterniflora. Firstly, the wetland use and wetland cover in the Yellow River Delta from 2020 to 2023 were obtained based on time series Sentinel-1 SAR images and random forest (RF) algorithms. Subsequently, given the lack of quantitative setting of driving forces for short-term wetland simulation prediction, a method combining RF and CA-Markov model was constructed to to quantify the weight of driving factors and generate multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) atlas, which is introduced into CA-Markov model to achieve more accurate simulation predictions for wetland conditions in 2023 under natural development scenarios. Finally, the landscape pattern indices of wetland in 2023 under the simulated and actual scenarios were calculated. The results indicated that: (1) Compared with the original model, the Kappa coefficient of the improved CA-Markov model is improved by 0.014. From 2020 to 2022, Spartina alterniflora distributed in a large area along the coast of the wetland, occupying the living space of native vegetation. In 2023, the effect of clearing Spartina alterniflora was effect, and its area was reduced to 5.53 km², which was 55.36 km² less than that in 2022, freeing up the living space for native vegetation such as Phragmites australis. (2) In the natural development scenario, the distance factor has a greater impact on wetland evolution, while the terrain factor has a lesser impact. Compared with the natural development scenario, the "fence" of Spartina alterniflora disappeared in actual scenario, and the connectivity of native vegetation increased. The distribution of Phragmites australis became more fragmented, with an area increase of 16.37 km² compared to the natural development scenario, gradually shifting the dominant vegetation type of wetlands towards Phragmites australis. (3) Due to the invasion ability of Spartina alterniflora to the new tidal flat was stronger than that of other native vegetation, and the coastlines of regions without Spartina alterniflora distribution move inward obviously when the coastal regions are affected by waves, the post-Spartina alterniflora-cleaning Yellow River Delta wetland faced new risks of recurrence, secondary spread, and coastline erosion.