农业生产系统韧性:维度与度量
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作者单位:

1.华南农业大学经济管理学院;2.华南农业大学农业产业发展研究中心;3.中南财经政法大学工商管理学院;4.北京师范大学环境学院

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F30;X24

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国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Resilience of Agricultural Production Systems: Dimensions and Measurements
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Affiliation:

1.Collage of Economics and Management,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou,Guangdong,;2.Agricultural Industry Development Research Center,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou,Guangdong;3.School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan,Hubei;4.School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing

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    摘要:

    学者们已开始从韧性的角度对经济学理论进行系统性反思,社会—生态系统理论的提出更是对经济学思想形成了巨大冲击,农业生产作为典型的社会—生态系统,更需要韧性思想。理论上,本文基于社会—生态系统理论,界定农业生产基本功能的基础上,并对农业生产系统多维度韧性进行了定性分析与拓展;实证上,本文结合FAO和《中国农业统计年鉴》等数据库,综合采用局部加权回归散点平滑法、香农熵方法以及广义据估计方法,为分析农业生产综合韧性和各维度韧性提供了衡量指标。理论分析表明,当前理论界应当高度重视农业韧性的复杂性,重新反思和刻画农业生产系统韧性;实证结果表明,1990—2020年全国农业综合韧性呈“W”型演化趋势,即分别在2004和2016年出现最低值,2016年后出现快速增长的趋势;粮食生产波动韧性在2016年以前较为稳定,并无明显的趋势,但在这之后则呈现出快速提高的趋势;生态韧性总体呈现倒“V” 型趋势, 2003年后下降趋势明显;2001-2019年期间,中国农业发展韧性则呈现“N”型上升趋势,其中上海、北京、天津、广东、浙江、辽宁的增幅较为明显。三大韧性的耦合协调度自2004年之后趋于稳定,在2016后得到明显提升,这体现了农业生产的各维度韧性关系的进一步优化改进。研究结果一定程度上解决了有关韧性概念的争论,完善和拓展了韧性理论的应用与框架,揭示了农业生产系统韧性演化路径和规律,为农业高质量发展提供了理论与现实依据。

    Abstract:

    Scholars have begun to systematically reflect on economic theories from the perspective of resilience. The emergence of the social-ecological system (SES) theory has had a significant impact on economic thought. Agricultural production, as a typical SES, requires the application of resilience thinking. Theoretically, this paper is based on the SES theory. It defines the basic functions of agricultural production and conducts a qualitative analysis and extension of the multi-dimensional resilience of the agricultural production system. Empirically, this paper combines databases such as FAO and the China Agricultural Statistical Yearbook. It employs a combination of locally weighted regression scatter smoothing, Shannon entropy methods, and generalized moment estimation methods to provide measurement indicators for analyzing the comprehensive resilience and multi-dimensional resilience of agricultural production. The theoretical analysis shows that the academic community should pay great attention to the complexity of agricultural resilience and re-examine and depict the resilience of the agricultural production system. The empirical results show that the comprehensive agricultural resilience in China exhibited a "W"-shaped evolution trend from 1990 to 2020, with the lowest values occurring in 2004 and 2016, respectively, and a rapid upward trend after 2016. The fluctuation resilience of grain production was relatively stable before 2016 without a clear trend, but it showed a rapid increase after that year. The ecological resilience showed an inverted "V" shape overall, with a significant downward trend after 2003. During the period from 2001 to 2019, the development resilience of China's agriculture exhibited an "N"-shaped upward trend, with Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Liaoning showing more significant increases. The coupling coordination degree of the three types of resilience has been stable since 2004 and has been significantly improved after 2016, reflecting the further optimization and improvement of the relationship between the various dimensions of agricultural production resilience. For the first time, this paper constructs a multi-dimensional resilience indicator for agricultural production from the aspects of production, ecology, and development, providing a theoretical basis and analytical tool for a comprehensive understanding of agricultural resilience. Furthermore, this paper quantitatively measures the various dimensions of agricultural production resilience, more accurately reflecting the complexity and multi-dimensionality of the agricultural system and offering new ideas for the measurement of agricultural resilience. This paper also reveals the coupling coordination relationship between different dimensions of resilience, providing a theoretical basis and practical guidance for formulating agricultural support policies and enhancing the resilience of the agricultural production system.

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陈有华,张壮,陈彬.农业生产系统韧性:维度与度量.生态学报,,(). http://dx. doi. org/[doi]

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