中国省际碳排放绩效空间关联效应及影响因素
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国家社会科学基金项目(23BTJ029);陕西省创新能力支撑计划软科学项目(2023-CX-RKX-106);中央高校基本科研项目(300102233604)


Spatial correlation effect and influencing factors of provincial carbon emission performance in China
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    摘要:

    提高碳排放绩效是促进环境与经济平衡,推动区域协同可持续的关键所在。借助超效率SBM模型测算中国30个省份2005-2022年的碳排放绩效,并采用修正的引力模型和社会网络分析法对网络的结构特征、相互关系的传递路径、网络效应和网络影响因素进行分析,结果显示:①中国碳排放绩效显著增长,其空间关联网络特征明显,表现为以“北京-上海”双核为中心的东密西疏格局,并逐渐形成复杂化、紧密化的网络分布。②网络中板块内的关系数量明显低于板块间,“净溢出”和“净受益”板块间的直接联系和关联程度增强,“双向溢出”和“经纪人”板块的影响作用逐渐减弱。③关联网络的整体和个体结构特征均显著影响碳排放绩效,提升网络密度、关联关系数、度数中心度、接近中心度和中介中心度,降低网络效率和网络等级度可以有效提高碳排放绩效。④空间距离缩小,经济发展、技术创新、对外开放和城镇化水平的差异扩大可以显著提升网络的关联强度,产业结构、人口密度、环境规制、能源消费强度差异对网络关联强度的影响大小和方向表现出阶段性特征。

    Abstract:

    At the completion of the "1+N" policy system for the "dual-carbon" target, improving carbon performance is a key to promoting balance between the environment and the economy and facilitating synergistic regional sustainability. However, the existing studies mainly focus on the measurement of carbon emission performance, influencing factors and traditional spatial scales, lacking exploration of the spatial correlation strength, network characteristics, and network conditions of various provinces and regions of carbon emission performance, and rarely examining the influencing factors of spatial network relationships from the perspective of spatial networks. Therefore, this article used the super-efficient SBM model to calculate the carbon emission performance of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2022. The structural characteristics of the network, transmission paths of interrelationships, network effects, and influencing factors were analyzed using the modified gravity model and social network analysis. The results are as follows: ① China's carbon emission performance increased significantly, the spatial correlation network characteristics were obvious, manifested as a dense in the east and sparse in the west pattern with the "Beijing-Shanghai" double core actors as the center, and gradually formed a complex and compact network distribution form. ② The number of relationships within each sector of the network is significantly lower than between sectors, and the direct connection and correlation between the "net spillover" and "net beneficial" sectors were strengthened. The influence of the "bidirectional spillover" and "broker" sectors has been gradually weakening. ③ The overall and individual structural characteristics of the correlation network significantly affect carbon emission performance. Increasing network density, number of relationships, degree centrality, closeness centrality, and intermediate centrality, decreasing network efficiency and network hierarchy are effective in improving carbon emission performance. ④ Reduced spatial distance and widening differences in levels of economic development, technological innovation, openness to the outside world, and urbanization among different provinces could significantly enhance the strength of network connections. The impact of differences in industrial structure, population density, environmental regulations, and energy consumption on network connection strength showed phasic characteristics. The study puts forward countermeasures and suggestions in terms of enhancing the strength of the carbon emission performance linkage network, giving full play to the network effect, and strengthening the transmission of influencing factors in the network, which have certain reference values for the country and region to improve the overall carbon emission performance and accelerate the synergistic green development in the region.

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王奕淇,甄雯青.中国省际碳排放绩效空间关联效应及影响因素.生态学报,2024,44(16):7036~7050

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