菜粉蝶及其近缘种东方菜粉蝶全球潜在分布区预测
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国家自然科学基金项目(32170421,32200343);北京市自然科学基金项目(5232001);“十四五”北京市属高校高水平科研创新团队支持计划(BPHR20220114)


Prediction for the global potential distribution area of the serious agricultural pest Pieris rapae and its closely related species Pieris canidia
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    摘要:

    重要农业害虫菜粉蝶(Pieris rapae)及其近缘种东方菜粉蝶(Pieris canidia)幼虫主要危害十字花科的多种蔬菜和油料作物,对农业粮食安全造成重大威胁。收集到菜粉蝶和东方菜粉蝶分布数据共计248393个,其中野外调查收集361个。基于上述现存分布点,利用6种物种分布模型算法对历史、当代和未来气候条件下两种粉蝶在全球的潜在分布区进行了预测。结果表明:(1)基于去除空间自相关后的6个气候变量构建的13种算法的模型预测结果中,有6种算法的模型评估指标的值高于随机状态(0.5)。(2)当代气候条件下,菜粉蝶的潜在分布区主要包括北美洲、南美洲南部、欧洲西部、中国东南部以及澳大利亚南部;东方菜粉蝶主要分布于南美洲北部和亚洲南部等地区。相比于东方菜粉蝶,菜粉蝶在3个时期的潜在分布区面积都要更大,但是东方菜粉蝶在未来气候条件下潜在分布区增加的面积将会更大,具有更高的潜在入侵概率。(3)相比于作为入侵生物的菜粉蝶,其近缘种东方菜粉蝶更能适应高温多雨的气候,面对未来全球变暖的趋势,东方菜粉蝶很有可能成为入侵物种,有必要对其未来气候条件下的潜在分布区,加强虫害监测和防控预报。研究对重要农业害虫菜粉蝶和东方菜粉蝶在不同气候条件下的潜在分布区进行预测和比较,为其防治提供理论依据。

    Abstract:

    Larvae of the serious agricultural pest Pieris rapae and its closely related species Pieris canidia mainly harm a variety of Brassicaceae vegetables and oil crops, posing a major threat to agricultural food security. In this study, a total of 248393 occurrence data were collected, among which 361 were collected by field investigation. Based on these occurrence data, six species distribution model algorithms were used to predict the global potential distribution areas of the two species under historical, current and future climate conditions. The results showed that: (1) among the model prediction results of 13 algorithms based on 6 climate variables after removing spatial autocorrelation, the values of 6 model evaluation indicators were higher than the random state (0.5). (2) Under the current climate conditions, the potential distribution areas of P. rapae mainly included North America, southern South America, western Europe, southeast China and southern Australia; P. canidia was mainly distributed in northern South America and southern Asia. Compared with P. canidia, the potential distribution area of P. rapae in the three periods was larger, but the potential distribution area of P. canidia would increase in the future, with a higher potential invasion probability. (3) Compared with the invasive species, P. rapae, its closely related species, P. canidia, had a better capacity to adapt to the hot and rainy climate. Faced with the trend of global warming in the future, P. canidia is likely to become an invasive species. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen pest monitoring, prevention and control forecasting for its potential distribution areas under future climate conditions. This study predicted and compared the potential distribution areas of the two species under different climatic conditions, and provided a theoretical basis for the control of these two serious agricultural pests.

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王瑛,杨采青,王丽丽,张露,张爱兵.菜粉蝶及其近缘种东方菜粉蝶全球潜在分布区预测.生态学报,2024,44(18):8185~8195

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