气候变化背景下大熊猫生境适宜性时空演变——以大熊猫国家公园岷山片区为例
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金面上项目(32371942)


Spatio-temporal evolution of giant panda habitat suitability in climate change scenarios: a case study of Min Mountains area of the Giant Panda National Park
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (General Program, Key Program, Major Research Plan)

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    气候变化导致的物种分布范围变化已对全球生物多样性保护造成严重威胁。为探讨气候变化对珍稀动物大熊猫的影响,研究以大熊猫国家公园岷山片区为例,筛选得到326个大熊猫痕迹点及气候、地形地貌、生物环境、人为干扰4类16项环境变量,应用最大熵模型及CMIP6气候模式数据探讨影响大熊猫分布的主要环境变量,并模拟现在(2004-2020年),预测未来(2050s)低强迫(SSP1-2.6)和高强迫(SSP5-8.5)情景下的大熊猫生境,分析生境适宜性的时空演变特征及趋势。结果表明:(1)气候类变量对岷山片区大熊猫分布有较大影响,其中最暖月最高温(Bio5)、海拔、最暖季度降水量(Bio18)及距道路距离是主要的影响变量;(2)现在气候下,岷山片区生境质量良好,适宜生境面积占片区总面积的 67.88%,未来大熊猫适宜生境面积整体呈缩减趋势,SSP1-2.6情景下大熊猫适宜生境面积缩减率为2.03%,SSP5-8.5 情景下为33.73%;(3) SSP1-2.6情景下,适宜生境丧失区主要位于岷山片区东部,SSP5-8.5 情景下,片区北部和南部也有大量生境丧失。两种未来气候情景下,新增生境均主要位于片区西北部;(4)大熊猫适宜生境的质心向西、西北方向,即高纬度、高海拔区域移动;(5)大熊猫主要在高、中适宜生境活动,现在气候下大熊猫在高、中适宜生境出现的频率分别为 67.79% 、24.23%,SSP1-2.6 情景下为45.09%、27.61%,SSP5-8.5情景下为21.47% 、26.69%。研究认为未来亟需关注气候变化下大熊猫生境的丧失和新增区,建议大熊猫国家公园从识别优先保护区、优化生态网络和调整管控分区三个方面加强对大熊猫生境的监测和保护,综合提升区域的气候适应能力。

    Abstract:

    Species distribution scope changes caused by climate change have posed a serious threat to global biodiversity conservation. Aiming to understand the impact of climate change on the valuable animal giant panda, we took Min Mountains area of the Giant Panda National Park as an example, selected 326 giant panda trace points and 16 environmental variables in 4 categories including climate, topography, biological environment, and human disturbance. Then we used the MaxEnt(maximum entropy, MaxEnt) model and CMIP6 climate model data to explore the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of giant panda, obtained giant panda habitat by simulating the present (2004-2020) and predicting the future (2050s): low compulsion scenario (SSP1-2.6) and high compulsion scenario (SSP5-8.5), analyzed the spatio-temporal variation characteristics and trends of habitat suitability. Results show that: (1) Climatic variables had a great impact on the distribution of giant pandas in the Min Mountains area, and the main influencing variables were the maximum temperature in the warmest month (Bio5), altitude, precipitation in the warmest quarter (Bio18) and distance from the road. (2) The habitat quality was good at the present, but will decline in the future. The area of suitable habitat under the present climate accounted for 67.88% of the total area, the reduction rate of suitable habitat area for giant panda will be 2.03% (SSP1-2.6) and 33.73% (SSP5-8.5) in the future. (3) In the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the main area of suitable habitat loss was located in the eastern part of Min Mountains area, while in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, there was a large amount of habitat loss in the northern and southern parts of the area. In both future climate scenarios, the new suitable habitat were mainly located in the northwestern part of the area. (4) The center of mass of giant panda suitable habitat will move to the west and northwest direction, high latitude and altitude area in the future. (5) Giant panda was mainly active in high and medium suitable habitats. The occurrence frequencies of giant panda in high and medium suitable habitats under the present climate were 67.79% and 24.23%, SSP1-2.6 were 45.09% and 27.61%, SSP5-8.5 were 21.47% and 26.69%, respectively. The study suggests that future attention should be paid to the loss and increase of giant panda habitat under climate change. It is recommended that the Giant Panda National Park should strengthen the monitoring and protection of panda habitats by identifying priority conservation areas, optimizing ecological networks, and adjusting management zones, so as to comprehensively improve the regional climate adaptation ability.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

罗言云,胡泽南,王倩娜,谭小昱.气候变化背景下大熊猫生境适宜性时空演变——以大熊猫国家公园岷山片区为例.生态学报,2024,44(18):8165~8174

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数: