中国省际碳排放空间关联网络结构特征及碳平衡分区
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国家社会科学基金一般项目(23XMZ060);新疆社会科学基金一般项目(21BGL098);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目(XJUFE2024K040)


Structural Characteristics and Carbon-Balanced Zoning of Spatial Correlation Network of Inter-Provincial Carbon Emissions in China
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    摘要:

    在碳达峰、碳中和的时代背景下,准确把握碳排放空间关联网络结构及碳平衡分区,对于推动生态环境协同治理、实现高质量协调发展具有指导作用。选用2005-2021年中国30个省份为样本,采用社会网络分析和探索性空间数据分析刻画碳排放空间格局特征与碳平衡分区,并对各综合分区提出针对性优化策略。研究表明:(1)碳排放量整体呈增长态势但增速较慢,表现出“东部高,中西部低”的空间分布特征;碳汇量增幅微弱,空间上呈“中西部高,东部低”的分布特征;碳平衡能力呈波动递减且存在明显空间差异,全国约43.33%的省份处于碳平衡能力较强的状态。(2)中国省际碳排放空间关联关系日益紧密,网络结构呈现较好的可达性和稳定性,但个体网络特征差异明显,京、津、沪和苏等省份处于网络中心位置,控制和掌握网络相关性的能力显著。(3)基于碳平衡分析,将各省细分为6种碳平衡功能区,且有18个关键省域被识别,并针对各分区提出差异化协同减排策略,促进区域间公平、高效的低碳转型发展,以期为“双碳”目标的实现提供参考。

    Abstract:

    Under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, accurately grasping the characteristics of the spatial network structure of the carbon emissions and the carbon balance zoning are of great guiding effect to promote the ecological environment collaborative management and realize the high-quality coordinated development. This article selected panel date encompassing 30 provinces and municipalities in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) from 2005 to 2021 as samples. It comprehensively employed social network analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis to deeply explore and analyze the characteristics of the spatial network structure of the carbon emissions, and divided the carbon balance zoning. Furthermore, the paper proposed targeted optimization strategies and directions for the various comprehensive divisions. The following key findings were revealed: (1) By the large, the total amount of carbon emissions in China showed an upward trend, but the growth rate of carbon emissions was growing at a relatively slow pace. Notably, it exhibited a spatial pattern of "high in the eastern part of the country, low in the central and western". The total carbon sinks showed a slight growth during the investigation period, showing a spatial distribution characteristic of "high in the central and western part of the country, low in the eastern". The overall carbon balance capacity showed a trend of fluctuation and decrease with obvious spatial differences, and about 43.33% of the provinces in China were in a strong carbon balance capacity situation. (2) During the study period, the overall spatial network structure of the carbon emissions of 30 provinces, municipalities, and regions in China had become more and more closely related, and the structure of carbon emission spatial network showed good accessibility and stability. However, the spatial difference of individual network structure characteristics was significant, and the Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu occupied the leading position in the entire spatial correlation network, which plays an important controlling role on the whole carbon emission spatial network. (3) Based on analysis of the carbon balance, the space in the 30 provinces, municipalities, and regions in China had been divided into 6 different carbon balance functional zones. At the same time, 18 key provincial domains were identified and defined. In addition, the differentiated regional low-carbon optimization development directions and strategies were proposed for each type of zoning, in order to promote equitable, efficient and low-carbon transformational development among regions, provide a reference for the realization of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.

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郭文强,史瑞雪,雷明,韦星羽,张雯苹.中国省际碳排放空间关联网络结构特征及碳平衡分区.生态学报,2024,44(18):8003~8020

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