山水林田湖草健康发展时空异质性及其驱动力——以广西北部湾经济区为例
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国家自然科学基金项目(42301306,41966007);国家社会科学基金项目(21XGL015);钦州市科学研究与技术开发计划项目(20223633)


Spatio-temporal heterogeneity and its driving force for the healthy development of mountains-waters-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands (seas): a case study of Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone
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    摘要:

    深入评估典型资源要素生态健康的时空异质性及其社会经济自然驱动机理,对实现可持续发展目标具有重要意义。然而,探究区域山水林田湖草(海)健康发展时空异质性及其驱动力的研究案例较少。广西北部湾经济区覆盖内陆与沿海6市,定位为生态环境综合治理先行区。以此为研究区,运用正态云模型、Dagum基尼系数、主成分分析和时空地理加权回归等模型,在综合评价的基础上,分析其2005-2020年山水林田湖草(海)健康发展的时空异质性,并依据系统论深入解析驱动力。结果表明:(1)除北海市的山水林田湖草(海)为亚健康外,其他均为健康状态,经济区内陆3市健康指数的基尼系数(0.095)高于沿海3市(0.016),存在时空非均衡性,超变密度(46.71%)和市域间差异(44.93%)是主要原因;(2)影响健康发展的驱动因子主要为:城镇土地利用率(0.427)>城乡居民可支配收入(0.397)>年均降水量(0.377)>房地产开发投资规模(-0.333)>建成区绿化覆盖度(0.261);(3)影响健康发展的驱动要素表现为:土地投入程度(0.611)>土地利用程度(0.442)>经济城镇化(-0.393)>自然条件(0.23),各因素均存在时空非平稳性。研究表明土地集约利用、城镇化发展和自然环境条件是广西北部湾经济区山水林田湖草(海)健康发展的主要驱动力,表现为自然环境条件起基础保障、土地集约利用起正向促进、经济城镇化起负向抑制的作用机理,提高城镇土地利用率、提升城乡居民可支配收入、扩大建成区绿化覆盖度并控制房地产开发规模是促进健康发展的关键抓手。

    Abstract:

    Comprehensively evaluating the ecological health benefits of typical natural resource elements and clarifying the social-economic-natural driving mechanisms is of great significance in guiding the layout of ecological restoration projects, maintaining regional ecological security and achieving sustainable development goals. Nevertheless, there are few case studies on the analysis of spatio-temporal heterogeneity and its driving force for the healthy development of mountains-waters-forests-farmlands -lakes-grasslands (seas). The Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone includes 6 cities, covering both inland and coastal areas, with rich natural resources such as mountains, rivers and seas, and is positioned as a pioneer zone for comprehensively ecological and environmental restoration. Thus, in order to explore the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the healthy development of mountains-waters-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands (seas) and its driving factors and mechanism, this paper used the normal cloud model, Dagum Gini coefficient, principal component analysis and spatial-temporal geographical weighted regression under the comprehensive evaluation framework to empirically study the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone in Guangxi from 2005 to 2020.The article sets up an evaluation system from three aspects: land use and structure, investment and income, resources and environment, and sets up a driving force system from three aspects: land intensive use, urbanization development and natural environment conditions. The results show that: (1) Except for Beihai City, whose mountains-waters-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands (seas) are sub-healthy, all others are healthy. The Gini coefficient of the three inland cities in the economic zone (0.095) is higher than that of the three coastal cities (0.016). The comprehensive level show that there has obviously spatio-temporal non-equilibrium characteristics, with hypervariable density (46.71%) and intra-city gap (44.93%) being the main causes. (2) The driving mechanism affecting the healthy development of the life community is decomposed into two levels: driving factors and driving elements. The driving factors are as follows: urban land utilization rate (0.427)>disposable income of urban and rural residents (0.397)>average annual precipitation (0.377) >investment scale in real estate development (-0.333)>greening coverage of built-up areas (0.261). (3) The driving elements are as follows: land input degree (0.611)>land use degree (0.442)>economic urbanization (-0.393)>natural conditions (0.23), and the spatial non-stationarity is evident in all factors. The study exhibits that the spatial heterogeneity for the healthy development of mountains-waters-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands (seas) in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone is manifested by spatial non-equilibrium of pattern and spatial non-stationarity of factors. Land intensive use, urbanization development and natural environmental conditions are the main driving forces for the healthy development of mountains-waters-forests-farmlands-lakes -grasslands (seas). The mechanism of action among multiple factors reflects that the natural environmental conditions are the basic guarantee, with land intensification being positively promoting and economic urbanization negatively inhibiting. Improving the utilization rate of urban land, increasing the disposable income of urban and rural residents, expanding the green coverage of built-up areas, and controlling the scale of investment in real estate are the key points to improve the level of healthy development of mountains-waters-forests-farmlands-lakes-grasslands (seas).

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张中秋,张裕凤,胡宝清.山水林田湖草健康发展时空异质性及其驱动力——以广西北部湾经济区为例.生态学报,2024,44(12):5140~5158

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